Talk:2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election

From WikiProjectMed
Jump to navigation Jump to search

Orphaned references in 2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election

I check pages listed in Category:Pages with incorrect ref formatting to try to fix reference errors. One of the things I do is look for content for orphaned references in wikilinked articles. I have found content for some of 2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election's orphans, the problem is that I found more than one version. I can't determine which (if any) is correct for this article, so I am asking for a sentient editor to look it over and copy the correct ref content into this article.

Reference named "politics1":

I apologize if any of the above are effectively identical; I am just a simple computer program, so I can't determine whether minor differences are significant or not. AnomieBOT⚡ 15:40, 19 March 2022 (UTC)[reply]

 Done ---CX Zoom(he/him) (let's talk|contribs) 16:42, 19 March 2022 (UTC)[reply]

This article's creation

Wikipedia is not a news site, or at least as far as we continue to be told in project space. Was there any real need to create this article before Dunleavy's proclamation? I couldn't help but notice that the article's creators are the usual gang of SPAs who specialize in excessively puffed-up content, often dubiously-sourced, about elections which haven't yet taken place. This means that facts and sources aren't settled. They never bother to stick around any of these articles once that is the case. Giving them such free reign to do this means that we are effectively creating a news site and not recognizing the difference between that and an encyclopedia. Gutting the article's content certainly appears to be justified, but it's insulting to look at a bunch of subject headers and templates containing no meaningful content. It's even more insulting to give this higher a priority than long-notable topics with long-settled facts and sources. RadioKAOS / Talk to me, Billy / Transmissions 22:57, 19 March 2022 (UTC)[reply]

But wait, there's more

John Coghill filed Monday morning. Curiously, I'm finding no coverage. I learned about it through a mutual friend on Facebook, which seems to be just as valid as some of the sources I'm currently seeing in the article (e.g. blog posts and tweets). RadioKAOS / Talk to me, Billy / Transmissions 05:09, 29 March 2022 (UTC)[reply]

@RadioKAOS: Forgot to reply, but there is news coverage for this, which I've added. Also, I don't see blog posts and tweets being used as sources in this specific article, which would be unreliable. —twotwofourtysix(My talk page and contributions) 10:48, 29 March 2022 (UTC)[reply]
As far as my Google search of several minutes ago is concerned, the headline in the Anchorage Daily News reads "Gross, Coghill say they plan to run for Alaska US House seat". This story was published 16 hours after Coghill actually filed. While many of us are acutely aware of how far local newspapers have fallen from grace, this is not very "reliable" from a regional newspaper of record in a world where so many are obsessed with 24/7, up-to-the-minute news (with Wikipedia doing its best to play along).
Since you say "I don't see", I'll happily critique the sources and the development of the article in general. The first issue is the separate "Declared" and "Filed paperwork" sections. Declared according to whom? There's a severely abbreviated filing window and a recent browsing of the FEC website turned up nothing specific to this election. Without that verification, the "declaration" is solely in the mind of the individuals listed and/or journalists friendly to them, using the mere existence of reliable sources to justify inclusion. In other words, I could declare myself to be a candidate and it would be just as valid if I conned a media outlet into taking it seriously, even if I filed no paperwork. It smacks of WP:SYNTH to me. More importantly, the brevity of the filing window means the former section will cease to be of significance in just a matter of days. Quit being a slave to the same old MOS when it's not doing the topic justice. With that in mind, why are we creating a gallery for "declared" candidates but not affording the same courtesy to actual verified candidates, those who appear in the following section? Sounds promotional and a serious NPOV violation to me. The article is riddled with factual errors throughout, including those easily verified by actually reading the sources present in the article.
Now, on to the sources:
  • Source 1 — While Fox News is nominally a RS, if one browses the revision history and talk page of Young's article, you'll realize Fox initially reported that Young died at the terminal at LAX, while everyone else reported that he died on the flight to SEA or was declared dead after the plane landed. It's being used solely to source the fact that Young died and there exists a ton of higher-quality sources for that.
  • Source 4 — This truncated AP story says nothing that isn't already covered in source 2, the ADN story by Brooks and Herz. I suppose it would suffice if it were tacked on as an additional source, though.
  • Source 6 — As I refer to above, this AP story published by the SF Chronicle is the same story the ADN published today. It appears the idea is to prove that the topic is receiving coverage from a broad range of sources, even if that coverage can be traced back to the same small handful of Alaska-based journalists. It's doesn't appear to be an effort to reflect the highest-quality coverage.
  • Source 7 — The list from the Division of Elections was last updated on Friday. Brelsford filed but that isn't reflected in the article. Coghill is known to have filed but that isn't reflected in the list. There's no coverage about Revak actually filing that I could find. Which brings us to...
  • Source 8 — Must Read Alaska is a "news blog", of which there are many in Alaska (The Alaska Landmine, The Alaska Watchman and Midnight Sun AK are other popular examples). There may be credentialed journalists involved, but they are considered blogs and exist to influence elections and the political process. As I recall, WP:RSN declared several years ago that subcommunities of editors simply can't declare something to be a reliable source without vetting it through them. As MRAK is used dozens of times throughout the encyclopedia, it's clear they're not doing their job in that respect.
  • Source 9 — This story written by Herz mostly rehashes the earlier story he co-wrote.
  • Source 10 — Move along, nothing to see here. The same as numerous other instances over the past decade of journalists prodding Palin for a quote about a prospective campaign which never materializes. We're supposed to treat this one as if it exists in a vacuum?
  • Source 11 — Paywalled and not marked as such. Looks like there's statements which can't be verified without a subscription.
  • Source 12 — Reads like an editorial and not a reporting of facts.
  • Source 13 — Same as source 11.
Hope this helps. I saw multiple tweets in earlier revisions, and the same editors who've been adding such "sources" to elections articles for quite some time. I guess they've already been dealt with. RadioKAOS / Talk to me, Billy / Transmissions 21:04, 29 March 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Rep. Young under candidates

Rep. Young was running in the regular election, not this special election that was created due to his passing. He wouldn't have contemplated running in a special election created by his passing, so I don't think he should be listed at all under "Candidates"(even if as decesased). 331dot (talk) 15:27, 2 April 2022 (UTC)[reply]

A Commons file used on this page or its Wikidata item has been nominated for speedy deletion

The following Wikimedia Commons file used on this page or its Wikidata item has been nominated for speedy deletion:

You can see the reason for deletion at the file description page linked above. —Community Tech bot (talk) 19:53, 5 April 2022 (UTC)[reply]

The less I have to do with ANI, the better. However, it's obvious that some of you have been given free reign to do your own thing, escaping the notice of the community at large, for long enough. First off, people are showing their true commitment to NPOV by repeatedly inserting copyvio photos of Nick Begich and Al Gross into this article, all the while there has been a properly-licensed photo of John Wayne Howe on Flickr for nearly a year and a half. Now that it's on Commons, you still are going nowhere near it. I'll be as clear about this as I can: NPOV MEANS WE ARE NOT HERE TO PROMOTE CERTAIN CANDIDACIES SIMPLY BECAUSE MONEY IS BEING RAISED AND SPENT. That's how articles on current elections have been built on Wikipedia for years and years. Ridiculous. Secondly, this should have been tagged with {{Historical election article}} from the start. The fact that it wasn't further shows evidence of some people's true commitment to honoring Wikipedia's core principles. What was the point of adding names to this article in the beginning which are no longer present? Please answer in a way which respects WP:NOTNEWS and WP:OR/WP:SYNTH. RadioKAOS / Talk to me, Billy / Transmissions 20:05, 5 April 2022 (UTC)[reply]

A Commons file used on this page or its Wikidata item has been nominated for deletion

The following Wikimedia Commons file used on this page or its Wikidata item has been nominated for deletion:

Participate in the deletion discussion at the nomination page. —Community Tech bot (talk) 20:37, 7 April 2022 (UTC)[reply]

So.. Sattler or Peltola?

@Thomascampbell123: Many news outlets, especially during the campaign, say that her surname is Peltola, including her FEC filing and the Alaska Division of Elections. More about this at Talk:Mary Sattler#Requested move 17 June 2022 and section above, please join the discussion there. I just don't wanna cause confusion to readers looking for "Peltola" only finding "Sattler", including my map only having "Peltola" in it. —twotwofourtysix(My talk page and contributions) 11:18, 18 June 2022 (UTC)[reply]

+1 Peltola: Sources on this article are using Peltola to refer to her, when using only last name. —CX Zoom[he/him] (let's talk • {C•X}) 08:47, 20 June 2022 (UTC)[reply]

I think that Sattler should by used unless both surnames are added to her Wikipedia page. Thomascampbell123 (talk) 00:42, 21 June 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Ordering of Candidates

Hi all,

I'm new to Wikipedia, so I just have one quick question. How are candidates ordered, particularly in the section listing candidates who advanced to the primary? It seems alphabetical, and is this always the standard across wikipedia pages?

Thanks, Vergilreader (talk) 02:01, 19 June 2022 (UTC)Vergilreader[reply]

Yes, lists of candidates in US election articles, and indeed election articles for many other countries, are usually sorted by last name. —twotwofourtysix(My talk page and contributions) 06:00, 19 June 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Gross withdrawal + Sweeney advancing update

While there's little doubt that Al Gross won't appear on the general election ballot. This AP article quoted a spokesperson from the Alaska Division of Elections saying that she was still looking into whether the fifth-placed candidate (currently Tara Sweeney) would actually advance into the general election and had no answer. Not to mention that Sweeney can/may be overtaken by another candidate, eg. Santa Claus, although unlikely. However, the Alaska Landmine that first broke the story seems to be very sure about the things I mentioned here. Thoughts? —twotwofourtysix(My talk page and contributions) 04:44, 21 June 2022 (UTC)[reply]

@Stroopwafels, 02rufus02, and David O. Johnson: Courtesy ping to interested editors —twotwofourtysix(My talk page and contributions) 04:57, 21 June 2022 (UTC)[reply]
Can we add a note that while reliable sources have indicated Sweeney is likely to be on the ballot, the Alaska Division of Elections is yet to clarify if a fifth placed candidate may advance into the general when one of the top four vote getters withdraws? TulsaPoliticsFan (talk) 05:38, 21 June 2022 (UTC)[reply]
Added a note here to that end. Stroopwafels (talk) 07:43, 21 June 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Ordering of Endorsements

Hi, I have a question regarding Sarah Palin’s endorsers. Shouldn’t we have Trump’s endorsement first before Haley’s? Or is this in chronological order? Cheers. -Conservative Alabamian (talk) 21:13, 22 June 2022 (UTC)[reply]

It is in alphabetical order by last name, so Haley comes before Trump. Cheers! —CX Zoom[he/him] (let's talk • {C•X}) 21:16, 22 June 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Round 2 results map

So it looks like we're not going to get any results breakdown by House district or precinct for round 2, ie. just a matchup between Peltola and Palin. If that's the case, should we keep it to the first round map only or should I add a simulated second round map based on uniform preference flows applied to all district (which might be speculative)? I'll make a first round results map by precinct soon. —twotwofourtysix(talk || edits) 09:12, 4 September 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Don't do a uniform flow map, that could be factually wrong, and even if it weren't WP:NOR probably applies. That said, I'm perfectly okay with general election's first round only results if second round results are not yet available. —CX Zoom[he/him] (let's talk • {C•X}) 15:12, 4 September 2022 (UTC)[reply]
So I just uploaded the more official (?) second round map. Explanation's over on the file page, if you're ok with it. —twotwofourtysix(talk || edits) 15:33, 11 September 2022 (UTC)[reply]
Looks great to me :-) —CX Zoom[he/him] (let's talk • {C•X}) 17:06, 11 September 2022 (UTC)[reply]

A Commons file used on this page or its Wikidata item has been nominated for speedy deletion

The following Wikimedia Commons file used on this page or its Wikidata item has been nominated for speedy deletion:

You can see the reason for deletion at the file description page linked above. —Community Tech bot (talk) 21:22, 18 September 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Edit reversion of results table

@CX Zoom

You have reverted my edit to the results table. Please see earlier discussion at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_Alaska#Total_votes_tallly for earlier discussion on the format of results tables for Alaska's RCV races.

Note in particular for this article, the "Election Summary Report" differs from the Round 1 results on the RCV Tabulation, so it is inaccurate to report the summary results as the round 1 results. If you have objections to this format, please bring them up at the other talk page (to keep discussion centralized) so we can reach a consensus. Thanks, 71.162.7.170 (talk) 16:51, 12 February 2023 (UTC)[reply]

On IRV pathologies

@108.30.55.246 Just wanted to say that if you feel there's a need for edits to the paragraph discussing the IRV pathologies in this election, best to discuss first on the Talk page. –Sincerely, A Lime 16:43, 28 May 2024 (UTC)[reply]

As I’ve said, there’s no issue with using mathematical terminology, though I will caution that this is Wikipedia so it should be understandable to most readers. What I do have a problem with is only criticizing ranked choice voting (or this version of it) without providing a balanced discussion. That’s an opinion that shouldn’t be framed as fact. Stormy160 (talk) 22:10, 28 May 2024 (UTC)[reply]
I'm happy to add any additional analyses you'd like from mathematicians or social choice theorists, but FairVote almost-certainly falls under WP:PARTISAN and wouldn't be considered a WP:RS. –Sincerely, A Lime 22:12, 28 May 2024 (UTC)[reply]
We can use a news source instead of FairVote. Additionally, saying “it generated discussion” summarizes something that happened as a result of the election (the discussion), as opposed to just presenting one opinion as if Wikipedia believes it. Stormy160 (talk) 22:14, 28 May 2024 (UTC)[reply]
Yes, but the mathematical pathologies weren't "discussion"—they're mathematical facts. We can see that subtracting 5% from Republicans' vote totals would have led to Begich winning, and we can also see that most ballots preferred Begich to Peltola (and an overwhelming majority preferred Begich to Palin). –Sincerely, A Lime 22:20, 28 May 2024 (UTC)[reply]
First of all, that’s based off of one analysis that is based on a survey it’s not a set in stone fact. Second, plenty would argue that it doesn’t matter if the majority preferred Begich because they didn’t express that in the first round. I don’t personally care in this instance which is correct or more mathematical but you can’t just bash the system. Stormy160 (talk) 22:23, 28 May 2024 (UTC)[reply]
It's not based on a survey, it's based on the cast vote records, i.e. the actual ballots. On ~52% of ballots, Begich was ranked higher than Peltola (and on ~60% he was ranked higher than Palin). This is the Condorcet matrix you can see at the bottom. It's not based on polling (though polls also confirm this). I believe I gave 3 citations, but if you want I can add more, since the analysis has been replicated a few times in different papers. (I just think it'd be overkill.)
I'm not also not "bashing the system". I'm pointing out that A) social choice theorists criticized this result (they did) and B) explaining why they criticized it.
Second, plenty would argue that it doesn’t matter if the majority preferred Begich because they didn’t express that in the first round.
I'm sure some people would; the argument that only the first-round preferences matter is basically the argument for first-past-the-post and all of its variants (including sequential loser plurality). I'm not sure how it would fit in here, though, because that sounds like an opinion. (Assuming I understand what you mean; preferences aren't expressed in rounds, they're expressed as soon as you cast your ballot). Still, that doesn't change the fact that social choice theorists criticized it for the reasons I laid out. –Sincerely, A Lime 22:42, 28 May 2024 (UTC)[reply]
That's actually not what I was thinking, I was actually referring to the argument that rewarding second and third place votes in the first round disincentivizes people to put a second or third choice since it could hurt their first choice. But there you go, more proof that there are many angles to this. The latest version is an improvement but it still needs to be framed as a summary of the discussion created by this election, not as an opinion. It still reads very negative, and IRV is not a common acronym it should just be referred to as "ranked-choice voting" because this is what most people think of when they think of ranked-choice voting. 108.30.55.246 (talk) 01:03, 29 May 2024 (UTC)[reply]
Also, there are some questionable things in there. You cannot say that a majority were opposed to Peltola is factual because she got a majority in the final round. Palin being a spoiler is a valid but debatable argument, but that doesn't automatically mean that every Begich voter who put Peltola second did it despite their disapproval. That's why I put it in terms of favorability ratings instead. And plurality voting with partisan primaries still would've most likely produced a Peltola vs Palin matchup. I also don't understand the last bit about voters who put Peltola last - that has no effect on the election. Stormy160 (talk) 01:10, 29 May 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Also, there are some questionable things in there. You cannot say that a majority were opposed to Peltola is factual because she got a majority in the final round.

Opposition refers to number of voters who would prefer some other candidate in one-on-one match; idea of a "final round" is a bit of an illusion (in IRV there are no rounds, it all happens simultaneously; "simulated runoff voting" would've been a better name). You can create a fake "majority" in a final round for any candidate, by eliminating all the popular candidates in early rounds; this is why standard definition of opposition in social choice is to take the worst-case opposition.

That's actually not what I was thinking, I was actually referring to the argument that rewarding second and third place votes in the first round disincentivizes people to put a second or third choice since it could hurt their first choice.

I'm not sure how that's related here, though I'll note (as discussed at later-no-harm criterion) that failing to reward 2nd/3rd place votes in the 1st round can also disincentivize putting them down. (Like here—for Palin voters, the 2nd preferences had no effect on the election and did not help Begich, so no reason to waste time ranking anyone besides Palin. So, many voters don't bother—30% in typical election I think.)

The latest version is an improvement but it still needs to be framed as a summary of the discussion created by this election, not as an opinion. It still reads very negative

I think it would be very hard to find positive commentary on this from any experts (social choice theorists). The commentary was all negative because this is the kind of race where IRV and FPP do very poorly, called a center squeeze. In polarized electorate, both systems tend to elect "extremists"—in quotes because Peltola is very moderate, but in low-turnout Alaska race, electorate is so conservative she might as well be communist. :p The median voter and majority went for Begich here, but he lost because the vote was split with Palin.

and IRV is not a common acronym it should just be referred to as "ranked-choice voting" because this is what most people think of when they think of ranked-choice voting.

Wikipedia still uses instant-runoff voting, since ranked choice voting is ambiguous and bit of misnomer. The IRV page notes sources discourage the term RCV because it . It also tricks people into thinking IRV is like other ranked voting methods (Condorcet methods), when it shares most of its properties and "flavor" with FPP (e.g. fails the median voter theorem).

And plurality voting with partisan primaries still would've most likely produced a Peltola vs Palin matchup.

Yep, that's correct. Criticisms of IRV from social choice theorists boil down to "doesn't go far enough". IRV falls in the same broad family of voting systems as FPP. Has all the same properties, e.g. lesser evil voting—for conservative Republicans, the honest vote for Palin let Peltola win (but voting Begich would have elected him).

I also don't understand the last bit about voters who put Peltola last - that has no effect on the election.

Palin voters let Peltola win: Palin eliminates Begich in first round. If not for Palin's supporters, Begich would defeat Peltola. Another way to put it is, if Alaska was more liberal, a Republican would've won the election. See Monotonicity criterion and Participation criterion. These are called negative voting weight events, because your ballot does the exact opposite of what you tell it to. You tell it to support Palin first and Begich second, but instead your ballot elects Peltola. This is what makes voting in IRV complicated or confusing: you can't rank candidates in order of preference, the order you put them on your ballot doesn't correspond with who benefits from your vote. –Sincerely, A Lime 02:50, 29 May 2024 (UTC)[reply]
Wow, I can tell that you detest ranked-choice voting/IRV. It's an interesting conversation and I'm not trying to dispute your points, but maybe because you are so opinionated it's not your place to be editing this. It is not Wikipedia's job to judge the system. If there was a discussion by others about whether the system worked, Wikipedia can describe what arguments were made. I believe the current version provides a nice survey of experts, pundits, and politicians with a range of views. It is not Wikipedia's place to make its own argument. Stormy160 (talk) 02:58, 29 May 2024 (UTC)[reply]
I'm not particularly emotionally involved, and I wouldn't really describe myself as detesting the system. It certainly has some advantages. You could even argue this center-squeeze property is good thing because extremists are the most passionate. This was a popular argument for political scientists until ~20 years ago, though it never really caught on in social choice.
I'm just trying to summarize the social choice commentary on this election, which is all very negative because it's a very good example of a center-squeeze. This is just the kind of setup where IRV does poorly (as every ranked system, including FPP, must in some situations). For IRV, that situation is when you have two candidates on the wings with a moderate in between. In other cases like the Maine elections in 2018, IRV did its job perfectly fine by eliminating minor-party spoilers. But with IRV, all the pathologies tend to crop up at once in this kind of race. So if you summarize how IRV performed in the election accurately, it looks almost like you have to be making it up, because everything goes wrong all at once :p
If you are interested in the topic, I recommend Moulin's textbook Axioms of Cooperative Decision Making or Fishburn's The Theory of Social Choice, which will go over all the commentary from voting theorists on this specific class of elections. –Sincerely, A Lime 03:47, 29 May 2024 (UTC)[reply]
Once again, this is very interesting, but not for this article. Stormy160 (talk) 04:08, 29 May 2024 (UTC)[reply]
I don't see how discussing things election scientists demonstrated happened under this new system wouldn't be relevant to this article. It would be like trying to remove commentary on the spoiler effect from the 2000 Florida election article.
On your request, I attempted to add contrary commentary by pundits as well. (Though I find its quality or relevance—on both sides—dubious, given their lack of expertise.)
However, my current concern is you keep attempting to replace the verifiable claim that a majority of voters opposed Peltola with the unverified claim that Peltola had a lower favorability rating than Begich (which we cannot determine from the ballots, and which is not stated anywhere in the sources supposedly cited).
What we know for certain is Peltola faced opposition from a majority of voters, under the common definition of opposition in social choice: 52% of voters ranked her either last or tied for last (i.e. a majority least-favorite), and more than half of voters would have opposed her in a runoff with Begich (pairwise opposition). Noting this is not particularly biased. The election did in fact spur substantial criticism of IRV from social choice/voting theorists.
If you can find any examples of positive commentary in a reputable mathematical or social choice journal, I'd be happy to add them. However, I was unable to find any in the usual social choice journals. –Sincerely, A Lime 17:26, 30 May 2024 (UTC)[reply]

RFC: No-show paradox

Should the article discuss the occurrence of a no-show paradox, up-is-down (monotonicity) paradox, and center-squeeze in this election? –Sincerely, A Lime 18:00, 30 May 2024 (UTC)[reply]

RFC: Majority opposition

Is it correct to refer to Peltola as having majority opposition, on the basis of having a majority of voters opposed in a runoff with Begich; as well as being left either unranked or ranked last on a majority of ballots? –Sincerely, A Lime 18:02, 30 May 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Retrieved from "https://mdwiki.org/wiki/Talk:2022_Alaska%27s_at-large_congressional_district_special_election"