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Diplomatic impact of the Israel–Hamas war

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The Israel–Hamas war sparked a major diplomatic crisis, with many countries around the world reacting strongly to the conflict that affected the momentum of regional relations.[1] At least nine countries took the drastic step of recalling their ambassadors and cutting diplomatic ties with Israel.[2][3] The conflict has also resulted in a renewed focus on a two-state solution to the ongoing conflict.[4][5]

Peace process and recognition of Palestine

United States

On 18 November, U.S. President Joe Biden said that after the war, "Gaza and the West Bank should be reunited under a single governance structure, ultimately under a revitalized Palestinian Authority, as we all work toward a two-state solution".[6] Biden reiterated that the United States would "not give up" on the two-state solution.[7]

Speaking in Dubai on 2 December 2023, US Vice President Harris said five principles govern the post-conflict approach: "no forcible displacement, no reoccupation, no blockade, no reduction in territory and "no use of Gaza as a platform for terrorism." We want to see a unified Gaza and West Bank under the Palestinian Authority, and Palestinian voices and aspirations must be at the center of this work."[8]

Contingent upon an extended pause in the fighting and release of hostages, the Biden administration is promoting a post war Israel-Palestine peace plan which would include recognition of a Palestinian state.[9][10]

After Netanyahu proposed a post war Gaza plan on 23 February 2024 at variance with US positions[11][12] the US reiterated its principles.[13] In response to an Israeli announcement of new settlement plans on 22 February, the US also restored the previous long standing US position that settlements are "inconsistent with international law".[14]

European Union

In an op-ed in the Financial Times, European chief diplomat Josep Borrell stated the two-state solution was the "best security guarantee" for Israel.[15] In January 2024, Borrell stated, "We only believe a two-state solution imposed from the outside would bring peace even though Israel insists on the negative".[16]

In a document circulated before a meeting scheduled for 22 January, Brussels proposed that EU member states should "set out the consequences they envisage to attach to engagement or non-engagement" with their proposed peace plan.[17]

With peace talks long stalled and a continuing war in Gaza, some European countries are supporting the recognition of a Palestinian state prior to a negotiated settlement with Britain’s Foreign Minister David Cameron stating that the UK could recognize a Palestinian state after a cease-fire in Gaza.[18]:

Spain

Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares stated Spain was in favor of recognizing the State of Palestine within a short-term timeframe.[19] Deputy prime minister Yolanda Díaz called on the international community to put pressure on Israel to stop what she called a massacre in Gaza,[20] while Minister of Social Rights Ione Belarra accused the EU and the US of "being complicit in Israel's war crimes" and called for Israel to be denounced before the International Criminal Court because of what she identified as ongoing "planned genocide" in the Gaza Strip against the Palestinian peoples.[21]

In November 2023, Sanchez criticized Israel's bombardment of the Gaza Strip and called for an "immediate ceasefire". He promised to "work in Europe and in Spain to recognise the Palestinian state".[22]

Belgium

Belgium’s Minister of Development Cooperation Caroline Gennez stated Belgium was also considering recognizing the state of Palestine.[23]

France

On 16 February 2024, French President Emmanuel Macron said "Recognizing a Palestinian state is not a taboo for France."[18]

Israel

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated, "I am the only one who will prevent a Palestinian state in Gaza and [the West Bank] after the war."[24] On 18 January, 2024, Netanyahu rejected calls from the United States to take steps toward the establishment of a Palestinian state.[25] On 17 February, Netanyahu stated, "We shall not bow down to international dictates in regards to a future deal with the Palestinians".[26] On 19 February, Netanyahu said he would propose legislation to oppose a Palestinian state.[27] On 20 February, he said a Palestinian state would "endanger our existence".[28]

Arab states

On 8 December 2023, an Arab delegation emphasized they did not want to discuss post-Gaza governance except in the context of a Palestinian state.[29] On 19 February 2024, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud stated, "When I talk to our partners in the international community, they all agree that the pathway to stability in our region, in Palestine, and for the security for Israel is towards a Palestinian State."[30]

Severance and recall of diplomatic relations

On 27 October, the United Nations General Assembly passed Resolution ES-10/21 calling for an "immediate and sustained" humanitarian truce and cessation of hostilities.
On 12 December 2023, the UN General Assembly passed Resolution ES-10/22 calling for an immediate ceasefire and the "immediate and unconditional" release of the hostages.

At least nine countries, including Jordan, Bahrain, Turkey, Colombia, Honduras, Chile, Belize, South Africa and Chad, have recalled their ambassadors to Israel or severed ties altogether. The measures were taken in response to Israel's conflict with Hamas, citing humanitarian concerns about the escalating conflict.[31][32][33][34]

South and Central America

Several South American countries filed diplomatic protests against Israel in response to the conflict with Hamas.

Brazil

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva criticized Israel's actions in the Gaza Strip[35] calling it "the insanity" of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.[36] On 19 February, Brazil recalled its ambassador to Israel.[37]

Bolivia

On the afternoon of Israel's 31 October airstrike on the Jabalia refugee camp, Bolivia severed all diplomatic ties with Israel,[38][39] attributing its decision to alleged war crimes and human rights violations in the Gaza Strip.[40]

As of 6 November 2023, Bolivia has severed diplomatic relations with Israel.[41] Likewise, Bolivia is considered the first country among Latin American countries to cut diplomatic ties with Israel.[42]

Chile

Chile recalled their ambassadors from Israel;[40] citing "unacceptable" violations of international humanitarian law in the Gaza Strip.

Colombia

Colombia also recalled its ambassadors from Israel.[40] The Foreign Ministry has released a statement urging for an immediate restart of discussions between Israel and Palestine, aiming to initiate a peace process that results in harmonious coexistence. This should be achieved through the establishment of secure borders, recognized internationally, while fully supporting the territorial integrity of both parties. Subsequently, Israel decided to cease all security exports to Colombia following President Gustavo Petro's comparison of the IDF to Nazi Germany. In retaliation, Petro threatened to suspend diplomatic relations between the two nations, emphasizing their opposition to genocide. On 31 October, as a form of protest against the "massacre of Palestinian people," Petro recalled Colombia's ambassador to Israel.

Belize

Belize suspended diplomatic relations with Israel.[43]

Honduran

The Honduran President Xiomara Castro announced the recall of its ambassador on 4 November, shortly after the country's ministry of foreign affairs stated that "Honduras energetically condemns the genocide and serious violations of international humanitarian law that the civilian Palestinian population is suffering in the Gaza Strip".[44]

Asia

Jordan

Jordan, a major U.S. ally in the Middle East, recalled its ambassador on 1 November, as an "expression of Jordan’s position of rejection and condemnation of the raging Israeli war on Gaza, which is killing innocent people and causing an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe."[44][45] Likewise, Jordan added that the ambassador of Israel who had departed Amman (the capital city) following Hamas' attack, won't be permitted to return.[46][47]

In November 2023, the prime minister of Jordan said that Jordan was considering all available options in its response to the Israeli aggression on Gaza and its subsequent consequences.[46][47] He argued that Israel's blockade of the heavily-populated Gaza Strip could not be justified as self-defense, and criticised the indiscriminate Israeli assault, which had included safe zones and ambulances in its targets.[46][47]

Bahrain

Bahrain's National Assembly suspended diplomatic and economic relations on 2 November,[48] citing a "solid and historical stance that supports the Palestinian cause and the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people."[49][50] Israel said they had no prior knowledge of the decision.[51]

Turkey

Turkey recalled its ambassador to Israel over the humanitarian crisis caused by Israel's continued attacks on civilians in Gaza on 4 November.[52] Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has announced that he is cutting off all contact with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.[53]

Africa

South Africa

South Africa recalled its entire diplomatic mission on 6 November and criticized Israel's ambassador for disparaging those "opposing the atrocities and genocide of the Israeli government".[54] On 21 November, Israel recalled its ambassador in South Africa for "consultation" just hours before South African parliament was due vote on whether to close or suspend Israeli embassy in the country.[55][56] The vote came through in favour of the suspending diplomatic ties and shutting the embassy.[57]

The Foreign Ministry issued a statement calling for de-escalation and blaming the conflagration on "the continued illegal occupation of Palestine land, continued settlement expansion, desecration of the Al Aqsa Mosque and Christian holy sites, and ongoing oppression of the Palestinian people". South Africa affirmed its support of a two-state solution.[58] Foreign minister Naledi Pandor was criticized by the South African Jewish Board of deputies for taking a phone call from Hamas ten days after its attack and accused her of taking sides in the conflict. Pandor denied expressing support for Hamas and said that she expressed support for the Palestinian people and discussed aid for the people of Gaza.[59][60] South Africa voted against condemning Hamas at the United Nations.[61]

On 29 December 2023, South Africa filed the case South Africa v. Israel (Genocide Convention) at the ICJ.

Chad

Chad also recalled its ambassador on 6 November, noting that it condemned "the loss of human lives of many innocent civilians and calls for a ceasefire leading to a lasting solution to the Palestinian question".[44] It also voted against condemning Hamas at the United-Nations.[62]

Europe

Belgium

On 1 February 2024, Caroline Gennez, Belgium’s Minister of Development Cooperation, and Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib announced they were summoning their ambassador after Israel bombed the Belgian Agency for Development Cooperation in Gaza.[63]

Reactions

  •  Cuba: President (Canel) stated, "We will not remain indifferent. We strongly condemn Israel's genocide."[64]
  •  Malaysia: Malaysia expressed its concern regarding the recent escalation in the Middle East through a statement issued by the Foreign Ministry. The statement attributes the root cause of the situation to the prolonged illegal occupation, blockade, sufferings, desecration of Al-Aqsa, and the politics of dispossession by Israel as the occupier. Malaysia calls for a return to the pre-1967 border and urges the United Nations Security Council to demand an end to the violence while emphasizing the importance of respecting and protecting the lives of innocent civilians. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, despite alleged pressure from Western nations, has chosen not to condemn Hamas, highlighting the longstanding relationship between Malaysia and the group. Furthermore, Malaysia voted against condemning Hamas at the United Nations. In a recent development, Malaysia has announced a ban on Israeli-owned and Israeli-flagged ships, as well as those headed for Israel, from docking at Malaysian ports.[65][66]
  •  Libya: The High Council of State expressed support to Palestine and asked the Government of National Unity to sever diplomatic relationships with countries supporting Israel, while the Minister of Foreign Affairs Taher al-Badour called for an immediate halt of Israeli attacks in Gaza.[67][68] The House of Representatives expressed support for Gaza, condemned Israel and asked the rival Government of National Stability to totally halt oil exports to countries which support Israel and the immediate expulsion of the ambassadors of the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Italy from Libya.[69][70]
  •  Benin: In December 2023, Benin voted against condemning Hamas at the United Nations.[71]
  •  Burundi: Burundi voted against condemning Hamas at the United Nations (In December 2023)[71]
  •  Sudan: The Foreign Ministry said that Sudan supported "the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people to have their independent state"; and called "for adherence to international resolutions and the protection of innocent civilians."[72][73]

Other impacts

China

The war tested China's strategy of 'balanced diplomacy' in the Middle East. Polarization over the conflict made it difficult to maintain Beijing's strategic Middle East vision.[74][75][76]

Global South

Western support for Israel's invasion of Gaza has led to wide divisions within the Global South. This has resulted in a growing negative perception of "double standards" and the "self-centered" West by the Global South.[77] Tirana Hassan, the executive director of Human Rights Watch, stated there was a global double standard trend as some states were turning "a blind eye to human rights abuses in exchange" for "natural resources, security or migration".[78]

On 8 November 2023, Nigeria canceled the planned visit of Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala.[79] On 20 December, Malaysia stated it was banning Israeli-flagged ships from entering its ports due to Israel's violations of international law.[80]

U.S. diplomacy

The United States struggled to gain influence when the war in Gaza broke out.[81][82] The United States is engaged in intense diplomacy aimed at undermining its closest Middle Eastern ally and trying to prevent the war from spreading to the region.[83] According to Ian Bremmer, Biden's approach to the war had left him as diplomatically isolated as Vladimir Putin.[84] Doctors Without Borders stated the US was isolated in its support of a war that seemed to have "no rules and no limits."[85] Rami George Khouri, a professor at the American University of Beirut, stated US policy had resulted in the country being seen as "evil people in the eyes of most of the world".[86]

The United States House of Representatives has endorsed the Republican proposal, which designates $14.5 billion in military support for Israel. Furthermore, Israel has been the recipient of the largest sum of military aid from the US in comparison to any other country since the conclusion of World War II, with assistance surpassing $124 billion.[87] Hassan Barari, a professor at Qatar University, stated, "The US is isolated now in the international community... This is really embarrassing for a country that upholds the idea of human rights".[88] The Washington Post stated the failure to pass a UN ceasefire resolution " underscored the isolation of the United States."[89] The Intercept stated Biden's defense of Israel's actions in Gaza were "driving the United States into isolation".[90]

G7

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has sought unity among the Group of Seven (G7) on how to deal with the crisis.[91][92] G7 members were seeking common ground to prevent the war in Gaza from further destabilizing already shaky security in the wider Middle East.[93]

IMEC

The implementation of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), which is supported by the United States, will encounter temporary hindrances. The recent challenges to the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel will undoubtedly pose new obstacles for the future execution of the IMEC plan.[94]

Impact on US–Iran relations

The war between Israel and Hamas has deepened the struggle between the US and Iran for influence in the Middle East. Iran's long-term strategy involves destroying Israel and driving a wedge between Israel and its regional neighbors. Despite tensions and anger across the region, the Biden administration's efforts to contain Iran and prevent a wider war are in line with the priorities of most Arab governments.[95]

Saudi-Israel normalization deal

Saudi Arabia, under the leadership of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has been in talks with Israel about possibly normalizing diplomatic relations.[96][97] However, due to the outbreak of war, these negotiations were suspended. The decision to suspend talks was communicated to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, dealing a blow to recent US efforts to 'restore peace' and diplomatic ties between the two countries.[98]

Russia

In contrast to Zelenskyy, Putin refrained from immediately condemning Hamas's terrorist attack on Israel. Instead, he attributed it to the failed Middle East policy of the United States. Russia, utilizing its position on the UNSC, has put forth resolutions denouncing attacks on civilians without explicitly mentioning Hamas. Furthermore, Russia vetoed a U.S.-sponsored resolution that acknowledged the right to self-defense for all states. This diplomatic response from Russia demonstrates its attempt to court the international community, similar to Ukraine's efforts. Moscow believes that aligning with Hamas against Israel is the most effective approach, as it has maintained relations with Hamas and has not designated it as a terrorist organization. Shortly after the horrific attack by Hamas, a delegation of senior Hamas officials visited Moscow to discuss the release of Russian-Israeli hostages and the evacuation of Russian citizens from the affected area.[99]

United Nations

Tamer Qarmout, a professor at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, explained the impact of the war on the perception of the United Nations, stating, "The UN is becoming irrelevant, marginalised, very politicised and its mandate is being questioned now."[100] UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated the war was "an appalling indictment of the deadlock in global relations."[101]

Geneva conventions

Israel, being a signatory to the Geneva Conventions, is obligated to conduct investigations into war crimes, even if they were committed by its own forces. According to international humanitarian law, states are bound to investigate and, if needed, prosecute individuals responsible for war crimes.[102]

Jamaica’s recognition of Palestine

On April 23, 2024, the Government of Jamaica officially recognized the State of Palestine. The decision was announced by the Minister for Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade, Kamina Johnson-Smith, following discussions by Cabinet. Jamaica's decision is based on its concerns regarding the war in Gaza and the ever-increasing humanitarian crisis.[103][104]

International organizations

  •  African Union: African Union Commission Chairperson Moussa Faki expressed his "utmost concern" at the situation and called for an immediate cessation of hostilities, additionally, he recalled that denial of the fundamental rights of the Palestinian people, particularly that of an independent and sovereign State, was the "main cause of the permanent Israeli-Palestinian tension."[105]
  •  Arab League: The League said "Israel's continued implementation of violent and extremist policies is a time bomb depriving the region of any serious opportunity for stability in the foreseeable future."[106]

See also

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