44th Manitoba general election

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44th Manitoba general election
← 2023 On or before October 5, 2027 45th →
57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba
29 seats are needed for a majority
 
Wab Kinew October 2023 (cropped).jpg
 PC LIB
Leader Wab Kinew Wayne Ewasko (interim) Cindy Lamoureux (interim)
Party New Democratic Progressive Conservative Liberal
Leader since September 16, 2017 January 18, 2024 October 17, 2023
Leader's seat Fort Rouge Lac du Bonnet Tyndall Park
Last election 34 seats, 45.63% 22 seats, 41.86% 1 seat, 10.63%
Current seats 34 22 1
Seats needed Steady Increase 7 Increase 28
Incumbent Premier

Wab Kinew
New Democratic



The 44th Manitoba general election will be held on or before October 5, 2027 to elect 57 members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba.

Background

Under Manitoba's Elections Act, a general election must be held no later than the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year following the previous election.[1] As the previous election was held in 2023, the latest possible date for the election is October 5, 2027.[2] The election will be held under first-past-the-post voting.

Current standings

Standings in the 43rd Legislature of Manitoba
Affiliation Assembly members
2023 election results Current
New Democratic 34 34
Progressive Conservative 22 22
Liberal 1 1
Vacant 0
Total members 57 57
Total seats 57 57

Timeline

2023

2024

  • January 18: Wayne Ewasko is chosen as the interim leader of the Progressive Conservative Party, replacing outgoing leader Heather Stefanson.
  • April 25: Heather Stefanson announces her intention to vacate her seat on May 6. A by-election will then be called before November 6.

Opinion Polling

Voting intentions in Manitoba since the 2023 election
Polling firm Dates conducted Source NDP PC Liberal Keystone Green Others Margin of error Sample size Polling method Lead
Probe Research Mar 5-18, 2024 [p 1][p 2] 49% 37% 8% 1% 2% 2% 3.1% 1,000 mixed 12%
Probe Research Nov 22-Dec 1, 2023 [p 3][p 4] 51% 38% 7% 1% 2% 1% 3.1% 1,000 mixed 13%
2023 general election October 3, 2023 [p 5] 45.63% 41.86% 10.63% 0.77% 0.74% 0.37% — — — 3.77%
Polling firm Dates conducted Source Others Margin of error Sample size Polling method Lead
NDP PC Liberal Keystone Green

References

  1. ^ Elections Act, CCSM , c. E30, s. 49.1(2)
  2. ^ CCSM c. E30, s. 49.1(3)
  3. ^ Hoye, Bryce (October 3, 2023). "Solid NDP win cements Kinew as 1st First Nations premier in Manitoba history". CBC News. Retrieved October 3, 2023.
  4. ^ The Canadian Press (October 17, 2023). "Lone Manitoba Liberal MLA Cindy Lamoureux named party's interim leader". CBC News. Retrieved October 17, 2023.
  5. ^ Petz, Sarah (October 18, 2023). "Wab Kinew officially sworn in as Manitoba's 1st First Nations premier". CBC News. Retrieved October 18, 2023.

Opinion poll sources

  1. ^ "March 2024 Manitoba Politics". Probe Research. March 26, 2024. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  2. ^ "Omni 2403 ES prov tables.spo" (PDF). Probe Research. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  3. ^ "Manitoba Provincial Politics: December 2023 Probe Omnibus Survey" (PDF). Probe Research. December 1, 2023. Retrieved December 15, 2023.
  4. ^ "Omni 2312 ES prov tables.pdf" (PDF). Probe Research. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  5. ^ Official Results
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