Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

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This article is about the book by Tetlock and Gardner. For superforecasters and superforecasting, see Superforecaster.

Superforecasting
First edition
AuthorPhilip E. Tetlock
Published2015 (Crown Publishers)
Pages340
ISBN9780804136693
LC ClassHB3730 .T47X 2015

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a 2015 book by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner. It details findings from The Good Judgment Project.

Reviews

The Economist reports that superforecasters are clever (with a good mental attitude), but not necessarily geniuses. It reports on the treasure trove of data coming from The Good Judgment Project, showing that accurately selected amateur forecasters (and the confidence they had in their forecasts) were often more accurately tuned than experts.[1] According to The Wall Street Journal, Superforecasting is "The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow."[2] The Harvard Business Review paired it to the book How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking by Jordan Ellenberg.[3] On the other hand, Klaus Solberg Søilen reviewing the book for the Journal of Intelligence Studies in Business was very critical, saying that the book did not give enough information on how the Good Judgment Project beat other forecasters.[4]

See also

References

  1. ^ "Unclouded vision". The Economist. September 26, 2015. Retrieved September 26, 2015.
  2. ^ Zweig, Jason. "Can You See the Future? Probably Better Than Professional Forecasters". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved September 25, 2015. I think Philip Tetlock's "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction," ..., is the most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow."
  3. ^ Frick, Walter. "Question Certainty". Harvard Business Review. Retrieved September 26, 2015.
  4. ^ Søilen, Klaus Solberg (2018). "Book review: Superforecasting: The art and science of prediction. Crown Publishers, New York, NY. Tetlock. E. Philip, Gardner, Dan (2015)". Journal of Intelligence Studies in Business. 8 (1): 46–53. Retrieved April 19, 2024.

External links


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