Research on tornadoes in 2024

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A National Severe Storms Laboratory’s vehicle chasing and researching a tornado near Duke, Oklahoma on May 25, 2024

During 2024, tornadoes and tornado outbreaks were extensively researched by meteorologists and engineers across the world. Some research and publications included: the effects of "Tornado Brain", several mobile radar observations of tornadoes, including the measurement of tornadic winds over 300 mph (480 km/h), the idea of tornado alley shifting eastward, and many other things.

Timeline

See also: History of tornado research

January

In January 2024, researchers with Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science, published an analysis and database of 74 tornadoes which occurred in South America. According to the researchers, this was the first time tornadic environments was studied across South America.[1]

February

President Obama greets a tornado survivor of the 2011 Joplin tornado

In February 2024, researchers with the University of Tennessee and University of Missouri published an academic study about how survivors from the 2011 Joplin tornado recover from "Tornado Brain", a new term for the PTSD of tornado survivors.[2] During the same month, researchers with Auburn University (AU), Florida International University (FIU), Pennsylvania State University (Penn State), Louisiana State University (LSU), University of South Alabama, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (UIUC), University of Kentucky, and CoreLogic, published an academic case study on how hurricane-resistant houses performed during the 2022 Arabi–New Orleans EF3 tornado.[3] Researchers with the Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO), Met Office, and Jersey Met, also published a case study on the storm which produced an intense tornado and a hailstorm on the island nation of Jersey.[4]

March

In March 2024, Anthony W. Lyza, Matthew D. Flournoy, and A. Addison Alford, researchers with the National Severe Storms Laboratory, Storm Prediction Center, CIWRO, and the University of Oklahoma's School of Meteorology, published a paper where they state, ">20% of supercell tornadoes may be capable of producing EF4–EF5 damage" and that "the legacy F-scale wind speed ranges may ultimately provide a better estimate of peak tornado wind speeds at 10–15 m AGL for strong–violent tornadoes and a better damage-based intensity rating for all tornadoes". In their conclusion, the researchers also posed the question: "Does a 0–5 ranking scale make sense given the current state of understanding of the low-level tornado wind profile and engineering of structures?"[5]

April

Evolution of the Minden–Harlan tornado on April 26

In April 2024, the European Severe Storms Laboratory and the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, along with seven other European organizations, published a detailed damage survey and analysis on the 2021 South Moravia tornado using the International Fujita scale.[6] Also in April, Timothy A. Coleman, with the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH), Richard L. Thompson with the NOAA Storm Prediction Center, and Dr. Gregory S. Forbes, a retired meteorologist from The Weather Channel published an article to the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology stating, "it is apparent that the perceived shift in tornado activity from the traditional tornado alley in the Great Plains to the eastern U.S. is indeed real".[7][8] On April 26, a Doppler on Wheels (DOW) mobile radar truck measured 1-second wind speeds of approximately 224 mph (360 km/h) at a height of ~282 yards (258 m) as a tornado passed near Harlan, Iowa, causing widespread destruction.[9][10] On April 30, strong tornado near Hollister, Oklahoma passed close to a NEXRAD radar. The radar measured a tornado vortex signature with a gate-to-gate of 260 miles per hour (420 km/h) about 600 feet (200 yd; 180 m) above the surface.[11][12]

In mid-April, the National Severe Storms Laboratory along with Texas Tech University begin the Low-Level Internal Flows in Tornadoes (LIFT) Project, with the goal to collect data from the “damage layer” of tornadoes; from ground level to 20 m (22 yd) above the surface. The LIFT project deployed 11 times between April-June, gathering data from “numerous successful intercepts”.[13]

May

In May 2024, researchers with the University of Western Ontario's Northern Tornado Project and engineering department conducted a case study on the 2018 Alonsa EF4 tornado, the 2020 Scarth EF3 tornado, and the 2023 Didsbury EF4 tornado. In their case study, the researchers assessed extreme damage caused by the tornado which is ineligible for ratings on the Canadian Enhanced Fujita scale or the American Enhanced Fujita scale (EF-scale). In their analysis, it was determined all three tornadoes caused damage well-beyond their assigned EF-scale ratings, with all three tornadoes having EF5-intensity winds; Alonsa with 127 metres per second (280 mph; 460 km/h), Scarth with 110–119 metres per second (250–270 mph; 400–430 km/h), and Didsbury with 119 metres per second (270 mph; 430 km/h). At the end of the analysis, the researchers stated, "the lofting wind speeds given by this model are much higher than the rating based on the ground survey EF-scale assessment. This may be due to the current tendency to bias strong EF5 tornadoes lower than reality, or limitations in conventional EF-scale assessments".[14]

On May 24, a Doppler on Wheels observed and recorded data of a large and long-lived EF2 tornado near Duke, Oklahoma.[15]

Greenfield tornado

High-resolution radar data of the EF4 tornado caught by DOW6

On May 21, a violent EF4 tornado struck the town of Greenfield, Iowa. As the tornado moved through the town, a Doppler on Wheels measured winds of at least >250 mph (400 km/h), "possibly as high as 290 mph (470 km/h)" at 48 yards (44 m) above the surface.[16] Pieter Groenemeijer, the director of the European Severe Storms Laboratory, noted that "on the IF-scale, 250 mph measured below 60 m above ground level is IF4 on the IF-scale, 290 mph is IF5."[17] The peak wind speed estimate was revised to between 309 mph (497 km/h) and 318 mph (512 km/h), a figure "among the highest wind speeds ever determined using DOW data", on June 22, 2024.[18]

A few weeks after the tornado, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released details about an experimental warning system which was tested before and during the tornado. This new warning system, named Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS), was created by the Hazardous Weather Testbed housed in the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma. During the experiment and test, the WoFS gave a high indication of “near-ground rotation” in and around the area of Greenfield, Iowa between 2-4 p.m. According to the press release, 75-minutes later, the violent EF4 tornado touched down. Scientists with the National Severe Storms Laboratory were able to local National Weather Service forecasters a 75-minute lead time for the tornado.[19]

June

In June 2024, the first part of research from the PERiLS Project was published through the American Meteorological Society.[20] On June 3, a rare and intense EF3 tornado struck the town of oThongathi (Tongaat), in South Africa. The South African Weather Service conducted a nine-day case study on the tornado.[21]

July

In July 2024, scientists and historians from the University of Maryland, College Park, Storm Prediction Center, National Weather Service Norman, Oklahoma, Stanford University, and the University of Oklahoma's School of Meteorology, Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, and Advanced Radar Research Center, published information on a new database, called Tornado Archive, which contains information on more than 100,000 tornadoes.[22]

On July 19, the hit disaster-film Twisters released, which included accurate scientific theories on ways to potentially disrupt tornadoes.[23]

Mobile radar observations

Main article: Mobile radar observation of tornadoes

This is a list of tornadoes which were observed by nearby mobile doppler weather radars.

Official rating Date Location Minimum peak wind speed Maximum peak wind speed Highest confirmed peak wind speed
EF3 April 26, 2024 Harlan, Iowa — — 224 mph (360 km/h)
A Doppler on Wheels recorded a wind gust of ~79 m/s (180 mph) about 258 m (846 ft) above the radar level. Peak ground level wind speed was estimated around 224 mph (360 km/h).[24][25][26]
EF2 April 27, 2024 Dexter, Kansas — — —
A Doppler on Wheels observed an EF2 tornado near Dexter, Kansas.[27]
EF1 April 27, 2024 Dexter, Kansas — — —
A Doppler on Wheels observed an EF1 tornado near Dexter, Kansas.[27]
EF4 May 21, 2024 Greenfield, Iowa 309 mph (497 km/h) 318 mph (512 km/h) ≥309 mph (497 km/h)
A Doppler on Wheels recorded winds of 263–271 mph (423–436 km/h) approximately 30–50 m (98–164 ft) above the radar level. Following calculations to more accurately determine peak wind speeds, it was published that ground-relative winds of 309–318 mph (497–512 km/h) could be observed briefly to the immediate east of the main circulation.[28]
EF2 May 22, 2024 Temple, Texas — — —
A Doppler on Wheels observed an EF2 tornado near Temple, Texas.[29]
EF2 May 23, 2024 Duke, Oklahoma & Olustee, Oklahoma — — 180 mph (290 km/h)
Two Doppler on Wheels scanned a large and long-lived EF2 tornado near Duke, Oklahoma.[30][31][32][33] A mobile radar from Texas Tech University recorded winds of 180 mph (290 km/h) less than 20 m (22 yd) above the surface.[13]
EFU May 25, 2024 Windthorst, Texas — — —
The University of Oklahoma’s RaXPol observed and documented a tornado near Windthorst, Texas.[34][35]

See also

References

  1. ^ Veloso-Aguila, Daniel; Rasmussen, Kristen L.; Maloney, Eric D. (January 2024). "Tornadoes in Southeast South America: Mesoscale to Planetary-Scale Environments". Monthly Weather Review. 152 (1). American Meteorological Society: 295–318. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-22-0248.1. Retrieved 21 July 2024.
  2. ^ First, Jennifer M.; Carnahan, Megan; Yu, Mansoo; Lee, Sangwon; Houston, J. Brian (19 February 2024). "'Recovering from Tornado Brain': A Qualitative Analysis of Long-Term Needs after One of the Deadliest Tornadoes in U.S. History". Clinical Social Work Journal. The University of Tennessee and University of Missouri via Springer Science+Business Media: 1–11. doi:10.1007/s10615-024-00926-1. ISSN 1573-3343. Retrieved 5 April 2024.
  3. ^ Roueche, David B.; Chen, Guangzhao; Soto, Mariantonieta Gutierrez; Kameshwar, Sabarethinam; Safiey, Amir; Do, Trung; Lombardo, Franklin T.; Nakayama, Jordan O.; Rittelmeyer, Brandon M.; Palacio-Betancur, Alejandro; Demaree, Garrett (May 2024). "Performance of Hurricane-Resistant Housing during the 2022 Arabi, Louisiana, Tornado". Journal of Structural Engineering. 150 (5). American Society of Civil Engineers. doi:10.1061/JSENDH.STENG-12986. Retrieved 7 May 2024.
  4. ^ Knightley, Paul; Horton, Sarah; Clark, Matthew; Winter, Matthew (March 2024). "The Jersey tornado and hailstorm of 1–2 November 2023". Weather. 79 (3). Royal Meteorological Society: 81–84. doi:10.1002/wea.4530. Retrieved 6 June 2024.
  5. ^ Lyza, Anthony W.; Flournoy, Matthew D.; Alford, A. Addison (19 March 2024). "Comparison of Tornado Damage Characteristics to Low-Altitude WSR-88D Radar Observations and Implications for Tornado Intensity Estimation" (Academic publication). Monthly Weather Review. -1 (aop). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and University of Oklahoma via the American Meteorological Society. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-23-0242.1. Retrieved 19 March 2024.
  6. ^ Púčik, Tomáš; Rýva, David; Staněk, Miloslav; Šinger, Miroslav; Groenemeijer, Pieter; Pistotnik, Georg; Kaltenberger, Rainer; Zich, Miloš; Koláček, Jan; Holzer, Alois (10 April 2024). "The violent tornado on 24 June 2021 in Czechia: damage survey, societal impacts and lessons learned" (Academic publication). Weather, Climate, and Society. -1 (aop). European Severe Storms Laboratory (ESSL), Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI), Charles University (CU), Meteopress, Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute (SHMÚ), Commenius University, Geosphere, Austrocontrol, and Brno University of Technology (BUT) via the American Meteorological Society. doi:10.1175/WCAS-D-23-0080.1. Retrieved 2 May 2024.
  7. ^ Coleman, Timothy A.; Thompson, Richard L.; Forbes, Gregory S. (29 April 2024). "A Comprehensive Analysis of the Spatial and Seasonal Shifts in Tornado Activity in the United States" (Academic publication). Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. -1 (aop). University of Alabama in Huntsville, Storm Prediction Center, The Weather Channel via the American Meteorological Society: 717–730. doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-23-0143.1. Retrieved 3 May 2024.
  8. ^ Erdman, Jonathan (5 June 2024). "'Tornado Alley' Has Shifted East From The Plains, A New Study Says" (News article). The Weather Channel. Archived from the original on 6 June 2024. Retrieved 6 June 2024.
  9. ^ "Preliminary Wind Summary Measurements and Analysis from Harlan, IA tornado on Friday (26 April 2024)" (Post on 𝕏). 𝕏 (Formerly Twitter). University of Illinois: Doppler on Wheels. 28 April 2024. Retrieved 28 April 2024. Winds of ~224 mph and diameter of max winds of ~2966 ft. Observations were taken as part of the @NSF -sponsored #BEST project led by @karen_kosiba and @JoshuaWurman
  10. ^ Kosiba, Karen (28 April 2024). "@DOWFacility research RE many peoples' questions" (Post on 𝕏). 𝕏 (Formerly Twitter). @karen_kosiba. Retrieved 29 April 2024. These data: Height ~258 m ARL (see 2) Gate 12m/beam 122m, gusts ~1sec
  11. ^ Patterson, Kaley (2 May 2024). "Did Oklahoma Really See the Most Powerful Tornado Ever?" (News article). Lawton, Oklahoma: KLAW 101. Archived from the original on 17 May 2024. Retrieved 17 May 2024. The gate velocities were over 260 miles per hour, a vortex hole like the eye of a hurricane and the swirl could be seen from 18,000 feet.
  12. ^ Antico, Tucker (30 April 2024). "In this 45 minute loop from SW OK, we've witnessed... 1) RFD surge initiate a strong tornado 2) TVS with GTG shear of 260+ MPH (600 FT beam height) 3) Tornado retrograde as it occluded 4) "Hurricane eye" BWER 5) Strong anticyclonic tornado emerge to the south #OKwx" (Post on 𝕏). 𝕏 (Formerly Twitter). Boston, Massachusetts: Boston25. Retrieved 1 May 2024.
  13. ^ a b National Severe Storms Laboratory (3 July 2024). "GROUND LEVEL SCIENCE: LIFT CHASES TORNADO INSIGHT". NSSL News. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved 16 July 2024.
  14. ^ Miller, Connell S.; Kopp, Gregory A.; Sills, David M.L.; Butt, Daniel G. (20 May 2024). "Estimating wind speeds in tornadoes using debris trajectories of large compact objects". Monthly Weather Review. -1 (aop). American Meteorological Society. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-23-0251.1. Retrieved 29 May 2024.
  15. ^ Doppler on Wheels (24 May 2024). "Reflectivity loop from DOW8 (the slacker DOW for uploading data) from the Olustee/Duke, OK tornado on Thursday, May 23, 2024 as part of the ⁦⁦@NSF #BEST project. #okwx" (Post on 𝕏). 𝕏 (Formerly Twitter). University of Illinois. Archived from the original on 13 June 2024. Retrieved 13 June 2024.
  16. ^ Wurman, Joshua; Kosiba, Karen (22 May 2024). "Very prelim analysis of DOW data show >250 mph peak winds, possibly high as 290, at 44 m (144 ft) above ground in Greenfield, IA. Tornado very intense & also very small, so worst winds were in narrow swath. Raw data from DOW7 (L); Prelim DOW-measured center path. POD blue dot (R)" (Post on 𝕏). 𝕏 (Formerly Twitter). University of Illinois: Doppler on Wheels. Archived from the original on 22 May 2024. Retrieved 22 May 2024.
  17. ^ Groenemeijer, Pieter (22 May 2024). "Impressive measurement! On the IF-scale, 250 mph measured below 60 m above ground level is IF4 on the IF-scale, 290 mph is IF5" (Post on 𝕏). 𝕏 (Formerly Twitter). European Severe Storms Laboratory. Archived from the original on 22 May 2024. Retrieved 22 May 2024.
  18. ^ "As the 2024 #BEST field season ends, a glimpse into the data collection during the Greenfield, IA tornado. Peak wind speeds as high as 309-318 mph were calculated in a narrow region 100-160 feet ARL. These are among the highest wind speeds ever determined using DOW data". x.com. University of Illinois. 22 June 2024. Retrieved 22 June 2024.
  19. ^ Moody, Wes. "SCIENCE IMPACT: Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System yields 75-minute lead time on violent tornado – NSSL News". National Severe Storms Laboratory. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved 21 July 2024.
  20. ^ Kosiba, Karen A.; Lyza, Anthony W.; Trapp, Robert J.; Rasmussen, Erik N.; Parker, Matthew; Biggerstaff, Michael I.; Nesbitt, Stephen W.; Weiss, Christopher C.; Wurman, Joshua; Knupp, Kevin R.; Coffer, Brice; Chmielewski, Vanna C.; Dawson, Daniel T.; Bruning, Eric; Bell, Tyler M.; Coniglio, Michael C.; Murphy, Todd A.; French, Michael; Blind-Doskocil, Leanne; Reinhart, Anthony E.; Wolff, dward; Schneider, Morgan E.; Silcott, Miranda; Smith, Elizabeth; Aikins, oshua; Wagner, Melissa; Robinson, Paul; Wilczak, James M.; White, Trevor; Bodine, David; Kumjian, Matthew R.; Waugh, Sean M.; Alford, A. Addison; Elmore, Kim; Kollias, Pavlos; Turner, David D. (12 June 2024). "The Propagation, Evolution, and Rotation in Linear Storms (PERiLS) Project". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. -1 (aop). American Meteorological Society. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0064.1.
  21. ^ "oThongathi tornado rated EF3 on the Enhanced Fujita scale" (PDF). Pretoria: South African Weather Service. 12 June 2024. Archived (PDF) from the original on 13 June 2024. Retrieved 13 June 2024.
  22. ^ Maas, Malcolm; Supinie, Timothy; Berrington, Andrew; Emmerson, Samuel; Aidala, Ava; Gavan, Michael (July 2024). "The Tornado Archive: Compiling and Visualizing a Worldwide, Digitized Tornado Database". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 105 (7). American Meteorological Society: E1137–E1152. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0123.1. Retrieved 21 July 2024.
  23. ^ Cava, Marco della. "Fact-checking 'Twisters': Can tornadoes really be stopped with science?". USA Today. Retrieved 21 July 2024.
  24. ^ Taylor, Cat (30 April 2024). "Doppler on Wheels BEST project surveyed Friday's tornadoes, aims to improve weather warnings". KTIV. NBC and The CW Plus. Retrieved 25 June 2024.
  25. ^ "Preliminary Wind Summary Measurements and Analysis from Harlan, IA tornado on Friday (26 April 2024)" (Post on 𝕏). 𝕏 (Formerly Twitter). University of Illinois: Doppler on Wheels. 28 April 2024. Retrieved 28 April 2024. Winds of ~224 mph and diameter of max winds of ~2966 ft. Observations were taken as part of the @NSF -sponsored #BEST project led by @karen_kosiba and @JoshuaWurman
  26. ^ Kosiba, Karen (28 April 2024). "@DOWFacility research RE many peoples' questions" (Post on 𝕏). 𝕏 (Formerly Twitter). @karen_kosiba. Retrieved 29 April 2024. These data: Height ~258 m ARL (see 2) Gate 12m/beam 122m, gusts ~1sec
  27. ^ a b "Up close with a tornado near Dexter, KS on Saturday, 27 April as part of the #BEST Project. (Doppler, Reflectivity, Rho-HV, Spectrum Width)" (Post on 𝕏). 𝕏 (formerly Twitter). Doppler on Wheels. 28 April 2024. Retrieved 25 June 2024.
  28. ^ "Flexible Array of Radars and Mesonets (FARM) statement concerning preliminary peak wind speed determinations based on Doppler On Wheels (DOW) data obtained in the Greenfield, Iowa tornado of 21 May 2024" (PDF). Champaign–Urbana metropolitan area: University of Illinois. 23 June 2024. Archived (PDF) from the original on 24 June 2024. Retrieved 24 June 2024.
  29. ^ "Inside view of DOW deployed in Temple, TX, as tornado caused substantial damage. We are on the road this week collecting data for the @NSF #BEST project. #txwx". X (formerly Twitter). Doppler on Wheels. 23 May 2024. Retrieved 25 June 2024.
  30. ^ "A deadly tornado and a rare feat for storm chasers". NBC News. Retrieved 25 June 2024.
  31. ^ "7-second update, low-level dual-Doppler data from DOW6 and DOW8 using 1-deg and 0.5-deg elevations and 25-m and 12-m gates covering most of the life cycle of the Duke, OK tornado. #okwx" (Post on X). X (formerly Twitter). Doppler on Wheels. 24 May 2024. Retrieved 25 June 2024.
  32. ^ Kosiba, Karen (23 May 2024). "Scanning near Olustee, OK with @DOWFacility #okwx" (Post on X). X (formerly Twitter). @karen_kosiba. Retrieved 25 June 2024.
  33. ^
  34. ^ RaXPol (26 May 2024). "Documented another tornado yesterday near Windthorst, TX!" (Post on X). X. University of Oklahoma. Retrieved 25 June 2024.
  35. ^ Emmerson, Sam. "Documented a decently strong tornado just E of Windthorst, TX with @raxpol today!". X. @ou_sams. Retrieved 25 June 2024.
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