List of target seats in the next United Kingdom general election

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The next United Kingdom general election will be held before 28 January 2025. These are the target seats for each of the political parties, according to results from the previous election in 2017.[1] Due to boundary changes following the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies, these target seats are determined by the notional results of the previous election using the new constituencies as if they were contested in 2019.[2]

List by party

Conservative

Conservative target seats[3]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing

required

Winning party 2024
1 Warrington South[note 1] Labour Party 0.06%
2 Coventry North West Labour Party 0.22%
3 Kensington and Bayswater[note 2] Labour Party 0.36%
4 Alyn and Deeside Labour Party 0.39%
5 Wirral West Labour Party 0.41%
6 Beckenham and Penge[note 3] Labour Party 0.52%
7 Heywood and Middleton North[note 4] Labour Party 0.80%
8 Dagenham and Rainham Labour Party 0.80%
9 Coventry South[note 5] Labour Party 0.86%
10 Warwick and Leamington Labour Party 1.12%
11 Bedford Labour Party 1.19%
12 Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley[note 5] Labour Party 1.31%
13 Doncaster Central Labour Party 1.38%
14 Ceredigion Preseli[note 5][note 6] Plaid Cymru 1.40%
15 Rawmarsh and Conisbrough[note 5] Labour Party 1.55%
16 Chesterfield Labour Party 1.61%
17 Oldham East and Saddleworth Labour Party 1.62%
18 Warrington North Labour Party 1.63%
19 Canterbury Labour Party 1.89%
20 Halifax Labour Party 1.99%
21 Newport West and Islwyn[note 5] Labour Party 2.06%
22 Perth and Kinross-shire[note 5] Scottish National Party 2.09%
23 Cramlington and Killingworth[note 5][note 7] Labour Party 2.24%
24 Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock[note 5] Scottish National Party 2.50%
25 Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey[note 5] Scottish National Party 2.56%
26 Doncaster North Labour Party 2.58%
27 Nottingham North and Kimberley Labour Party 2.89%
28 Gower Labour Party 2.93%
29 Leeds East Labour Party 3.06%
30 Leeds West and Pudsey[note 5][note 8] Labour Party 3.09%
31 Wolverhampton South East Labour Party 3.10%
32 Tynemouth Labour Party 3.26%
33 Bradford South Labour Party 3.34%
34 Croydon East[note 5] Labour Party 3.37%
35 Sunderland Central Labour Party 3.41%
36 Stalybridge and Hyde Labour Party 3.48%
37 East Lothian Scottish National Party[note 9] 3.62%
38 Houghton and Sunderland South Labour Party 3.65%
39 Kingston upon Hull East Labour Party 3.67%
40 Rotherham Labour Party 3.79%

Labour

Labour target seats[4]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing

required

Winning party 2024
1 Burnley Conservative Party 0.13%
2 Leigh and Atherton[note 5] Conservative Party 0.33%
3 High Peak Conservative Party 0.54%
4 Bangor Aberconwy[note 5] Conservative Party 0.77%
5 Wolverhampton West[note 5] Conservative Party 0.92%
6 Bury South Conservative Party 0.94%
7 Bury North Conservative Party 1.20%
8 Bolton North East Conservative Party 1.28%
9 Watford Conservative Party 1.35%
10 Chingford and Woodford Green Conservative Party 1.47%
11 Wycombe Conservative Party 1.58%
12 Birmingham Northfield Conservative Party 1.68%
13 Leeds North West[note 10] Conservative Party 1.80%
14 Stroud Conservative Party 2.03%
15 Keighley and Ilkley[note 5] Conservative Party 2.11%
16 Stoke-on-Trent Central Conservative Party 2.11%
17 East Lothian Scottish National Party[note 11] 2.15%
18 Whitehaven and Workington[note 5] Conservative Party 2.17%
19 Gedling Conservative Party 2.22%
20 Walsall and Bloxwich[note 5] Conservative Party 2.40%
21 Peterborough Conservative Party 2.47%
22 Vale of Glamorgan Conservative Party 2.57%
23 West Bromwich[note 5] Conservative Party 2.60%
24 Mid Cheshire[note 5] Conservative Party 2.66%
25 Wakefield and Rothwell[note 5][note 12] Conservative Party 2.67%
26 Ynys Mon Conservative Party 2.69%
27 Derby North Conservative Party 2.70%
28 Bridgend Conservative Party 2.73%
29 Clwyd North[note 5] Conservative Party 2.76%
30 Lancaster and Wyre[note 5][note 13] Conservative Party 3.05%
31 Hastings and Rye Conservative Party 3.36%
32 Eltham and Chislehurst[note 5][note 14] Conservative Party 3.37%
33 Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy Scottish National Party[note 15] 3.41%
34 Lincoln Conservative Party 3.47%
35 Hyndburn Conservative Party 3.48%
36 Broxtowe Conservative Party 3.58%
37 Chipping Barnet Conservative Party 3.60%
38 Northampton North Conservative Party 3.85%
39 Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor[note 5] Conservative Party 3.93%
40 Hendon Conservative Party 4.01%
41 Truro and Falmouth Conservative Party 4.04%
42 Wrexham Conservative Party 4.18%
43 Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice[note 5][note 16] Conservative Party 4.35%
44 Blackpool South[note 12] Conservative Party 4.36%
45 Calder Valley Conservative Party 4.52%
46 Southampton Itchen Conservative Party 4.70%
47 Milton Keynes Central[note 5] Conservative Party 4.70%
48 Clwyd East[note 5] Conservative Party 5.00%
49 Glasgow North East Scottish National Party 5.01%
50 Darlington Conservative Party 5.36%
51 Redcar Conservative Party 5.45%
52 Ipswich Conservative Party 5.53%
53 Coatbridge and Bellshill[note 5] Scottish National Party 5.54%
54 Altrincham and Sale West Conservative Party 5.61%
55 Swindon South Conservative Party 5.70%
56 Cities of London and Westminster Conservative Party 5.73%
57 Airdrie and Shotts Scottish National Party 5.74%
58 Bolsover Conservative Party 5.77%
59 Shipley Conservative Party 5.78%
60 Crewe and Nantwich Conservative Party 5.79%
61 Rutherglen[note 5] Scottish National Party 5.90%
62. Loughborough Conservative Party 5.90%
63. Midlothian Scottish National Party 5.92%
64. Rushcliffe Conservative Party 6.12%
65. Tipton and Wednesbury[note 5] Conservative Party 6.14%
66. Norwich North Conservative Party 6.25%
67. Spen Valley[note 5] Conservative Party 6.42%
68. Glasgow South West Scottish National Party 6.43%
69. Milton Keynes North Conservative Party 6.55%
70. Worcester Conservative Party 6.64%
71. Glasgow North Scottish National Party 6.72%
72. Rother Valley Conservative Party 6.74%
73. Southport Conservative Party 6.80%
74. Ashfield Conservative Party[note 17] 6.81%
75. Shrewsbury[note 5] Conservative Party 6.96%
76. East Worthing and Shoreham Conservative Party 7.03%
77. Caerfyrddin[note 5] Conservative Party 7.04%
78. Penistone and Stocksbridge Conservative Party 7.28%
79. Barrow and Furness Conservative Party 7.43%
80. Colne Valley Conservative Party 7.46%
81. Ceredigion Preseli[note 5] Plaid Cymru 7.49%
82. Filton and Bradley Stoke Conservative Party 7.61%
83. Glasgow East Scottish National Party 7.62%
84. Uxbridge and South Ruislip Conservative Party 7.77%
85. Mid and South Pembrokeshire[note 5] Conservative Party 7.84%
86. East Thanet[note 5] Conservative Party 7.91%
87. Corby and East Northamptonshire [note 5] Conservative Party 8.05%
88. Leeds South West and Morley[note 5] Conservative Party 8.16%
89. Hamilton and Clyde Valley[note 5] Scottish National Party 8.18%
90. Bishop Auckland Conservative Party 8.19%
91. Chelsea and Fulham Conservative Party 8.21%
92. Crawley Conservative Party 8.38%
93. Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles) Scottish National Party[note 18] 8.42%
94. Harrow East Conservative Party 8.59%
95. South Ribble Conservative Party 8.65%
96. Newcastle-under-Lyme Conservative Party 8.73%
97. Bournemouth East Conservative Party 8.94%
98. Stevenage Conservative Party 8.98%
99. Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke[note 5] Scottish National Party 9.11%
100. Glasgow South Scottish National Party 9.42%
Other seats gained and lost in by-elections that Labour are targeting[5][note 12]
163 Selby[note 5] Conservative Party 14.06%
211 Wellingborough and Rushden[note 5] Conservative Party 17.05%
- Bristol North East[note 5] Labour Party -
- Mid Bedfordshire Conservative Party -
- Rochdale Labour Party -
- Tamworth Conservative Party -

Liberal Democrats

Liberal Democrats target seats[6]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing

required

Winning party 2024
1 Carshalton and Wallington Conservative Party 0.64%
2 North East Fife Scottish National Party 0.70%
3 Wimbledon Conservative Party 0.74%
4 Sheffield Hallam Labour Party 0.92%
5 South Cambridgeshire Conservative Party 1.25%
6 Cheltenham Conservative Party 1.25%
7 Mid Dunbartonshire[note 5] Scottish National Party 1.69%
8 Cheadle Conservative Party 2.09%
9 Eastbourne Conservative Party 2.11%
10 Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross[note 19] Scottish National Party 2.64%
11 Esher and Walton Conservative Party 2.68%
12 Guildford Conservative Party 2.96%
13 Lewes Conservative Party 3.71%
14 Hazel Grove Conservative Party 4.18%
15 Westmorland and Lonsdale[note 20] Conservative Party 4.74%
16 St Ives Conservative Party 4.85%
17 Finchley and Golders Green Conservative Party 5.98%
18 Cities of London and Westminster Conservative Party 6.05%
19 Winchester Conservative Party 7.08%
20 Taunton and Wellington[note 5] Conservative Party 7.84%
21 Harrogate and Knaresborough Conservative Party 7.91%
22 Cambridge Labour Party 8.14%
23 Sutton and Cheam Conservative Party 8.27%
24 Woking Conservative Party 8.50%
25 Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe[note 5] Conservative Party 8.70%
26 Eastleigh Conservative Party 8.72%
27 Didcot and Wantage[note 5] Conservative Party 9.22%
28 Bermondsey and Old Southwark Labour Party 9.28%
29 Dorking and Horley[note 5] Conservative Party 9.44%
30 Godalming and Ash[note 5] Conservative Party 9.63%
31 West Dorset Conservative Party 10.71%
32 Chelsea and Fulham Conservative Party 10.82%
33 Henley and Thame[note 5] Conservative Party 11.05%
34 Newbury Conservative Party 11.24%
35 Wokingham Conservative Party 11.59%
36 Hitchin[note 5] Conservative Party 11.67%
37 Hampstead and Highgate[note 5] Labour Party 11.68%
38 St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire[note 5] Conservative Party 12.24%
39 Ely and East Cambridgeshire[note 5] Conservative Party 12.35%
40 South Devon[note 5] Conservative Party 12.66%
41 Wells and Mendip Hills[note 5] Conservative Party 12.66%
42 Mid Sussex Conservative Party 12.90%
43 Frome and East Somerset[note 5][note 12] Conservative Party 12.92%
44 Thornbury and Yate Conservative Party 12.96%
45 Chippenham Conservative Party 13.06%
46 Farnham and Bordon[note 5] Conservative Party 13.27%
47 North Devon Conservative Party 13.33%
48 Glastonbury and Somerton[note 5][note 12] Conservative Party 13.33%
49 Tunbridge Wells Conservative Party 13.40%
50 Earley and Woodley[note 5] Conservative Party 13.48%
Other seats gained in by-elections the Liberal Democrats are targeting[7][note 12]
76 Chesham and Amersham Conservative Party 16.96%
142 Tiverton and Minehead[note 5] Conservative Party 20.91%
258 Honiton and Sidmouth[note 5] Conservative Party 24.99%
- North Shropshire Conservative Party -

Reform UK

The target seats for Reform UK are based on results of the Brexit Party in 2019.[8] The party didn't contest Conservative held seats so their target seats based on the 2019 result are primarily in North East England and Wales.[9]

Reform UK target seats[10]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing

required

Winning party 2024
1 Barnsley North[note 5] Labour Party 4.50%
2 Hartlepool[note 21] Labour Party 5.92%
3 Barnsley South[note 5] Labour Party 6.29%
4 Doncaster North Labour Party 12.82%
5 Easington Labour Party 14.31%
6 South Shields Labour Party 14.70%
7 Rotherham Labour Party 16.07%
8 Normanton and Hemsworth[note 5] Labour Party 16.19%
9 Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney[note 5] Labour Party 16.20%
10 Houghton and Sunderland South Labour Party 16.81%
11 Caerphilly Labour Party 16.85%
12 Kingston upon Hull East Labour Party 17.46%
13 Wigan Labour Party 18.55%
14 Pontypridd Labour Party 19.09%
15 Neath and Swansea East[note 5] Labour Party 19.38%
16 Washington and Gateshead South[note 5] Labour Party 19.60%
17 Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley[note 5] Labour Party 19.77%
18 Jarrow and Gateshead East[note 5] Labour Party 19.84%
19 Torfaen Labour Party 20.12%
20 Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice[note 5][note 22] Conservative Party 20.31%
Other seat Reform UK is targeting
32 Ashfield Conservative Party[note 17] 21.88%

SNP

Scottish National Party target seats[11]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing

required

Winning party 2024
1 Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Conservative Party 0.79%
2 Dumfries and Galloway Conservative Party 1.48%
3 Aberdeenshire North and Moray East[note 5] Conservative Party 2.61%
4 Edinburgh West Liberal Democrats 2.62%
5 Gordon and Buchan[note 5][note 23] Conservative Party 3.39%
6 Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Conservative Party 4.26%
7 Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Conservative Party 4.84%
8 Orkney and Shetland Liberal Democrats 5.41%
9 Edinburgh South Labour Party 10.18%
Other seats the SNP is targeting
- Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross[note 24] Scottish National Party[note 24] 5.00%
- North East Fife[note 25] Scottish National Party[note 25] 1.00%
- Rutherglen and Hamilton West[note 26] Scottish National Party[note 26] 15%[note 26]

Plaid Cymru

Plaid Cymru target seats[12]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing

required

Winning party 2024
1 Ynys Mon Conservative Party 3.48%
2 Caerfyrddin[note 5] Conservative Party 4.25%
3 Llanelli Labour Party 9.53%
4 Caerphilly Labour Party 14.59%
5 Pontypridd Labour Party 17.87%
6 Neath and Swansea East[note 5] Labour Party 19.70%

Green Party

Green Party of England and Wales, Green Party Northern Ireland and Scottish Greens target seats[13]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing

required

Winning party 2024
1 Bristol Central[note 5] Labour Party 16.23%
2 Isle of Wight West[note 5] Conservative Party 19.30%
3 Edinburgh North and Leith Scottish National Party 20.26%
4 West Tyrone Sinn Féin 20.53%
5 Dunfermline and Dollar[note 5] Scottish National Party 21.35%
6 Frome and East Somerset[note 5] Conservative Party 21.61%
7 Isle of Wight East[note 5] Conservative Party 21.70%
8 Hampstead and Highgate[note 5] Labour Party 21.99%
9 East Kilbride and Strathaven[note 5] Scottish National Party 22.24%
10 Livingston Scottish National Party 22.34%
11 Bathgate and Linlithgow[note 5] Scottish National Party 22.46%
12 Edinburgh South West Scottish National Party 22.60%
Other seats Greens are targeting[14]
82 Waveney Valley Conservative Party 26.45%
- North Herefordshire Conservative Party -

Northern Ireland parties

Target seats requiring swings of under 10%:

Ulster Unionist Party[15]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing Needed
1. Fermanagh and South Tyrone Sinn Féin 0.49%
2. South Antrim Democratic Unionist Party 3.56%
Sinn Féin[16]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing Needed
1. Upper Bann Democratic Unionist Party 8.05%
Democratic Unionist Party[17]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing Needed
1. North Down Alliance Party of Northern Ireland 3.09%
2. Belfast North Sinn Féin 3.88%
3. South Down Sinn Féin 9.06%
4. West Tyrone Sinn Féin 9.20%
Social Democratic and Labour Party[18]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing Needed
1. South Down Sinn Féin 1.80%
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland[19]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing Needed
1. Belfast East Democratic Unionist Party 2.91%
2. Strangford Democratic Unionist Party 7.07%
3. East Antrim Democratic Unionist Party 7.96%
4. Lagan Valley Democratic Unionist Party 8.12%

Notes

  1. ^ Warrington South was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
  2. ^ Kensington was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
  3. ^ Beckenham was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
  4. ^ Heywood and Middleton was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
  5. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw ax ay az ba bb bc bd be bf bg bh bi bj bk bl bm bn bo bp bq br bs bt bu bv bw bx by bz ca cb cc cd ce New seat
  6. ^ Preseli Pembrokeshire was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but is notionally a Plaid Cymru seat under new boundaries
  7. ^ Blyth Valley was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but its successor seat is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
  8. ^ Pudsey was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but merged with Leeds West, is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
  9. ^ The incumbent MP is Kenny MacAskill from the Alba Party who defected from the SNP
  10. ^ Leeds North West was won by Labour in 2019, but is notionally a Conservative seat under new boundaries
  11. ^ The incumbent MP is Neale Hanvey from the Alba Party who defected from the SNP
  12. ^ a b c d e f Predecessor seat gained in by-election
  13. ^ Wyre and Preston North was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but merged with Lancaster and Fleetwood which was won by Labour, is notionally a Conservative seat under new boundaries
  14. ^ Eltham was won by Labour in 2019, but merged with Bromley and Chislehurst which was won by the Conservatives, is notionally a Conservative seat under new boundaries
  15. ^ The incumbent MP is Neale Hanvey from the Alba Party who defected from the SNP
  16. ^ Kingston upon Hull West was won by Labour in 2019, but merged with Haltemprice and Howden, is notionally a Conservative seat under new boundaries
  17. ^ a b The incumbent MP is Lee Anderson from Reform UK who defected from the Conservatives
  18. ^ The incumbent is Independent MP Angus MacNeil who was expelled from the SNP
  19. ^ Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross was won by the Liberal Democrats in 2019, but is notionally an SNP seat under new boundaries
  20. ^ Westmorland and Lonsdale was won by the Liberal Democrats in 2019, but is notionally a Conservative seat under new boundaries
  21. ^ Hartlepool was won by the Conservatives in the 2021 Hartlepool by-election
  22. ^ Hull West was won by Labour in 2019, but is notionally an Conservative seat under new boundaries
  23. ^ Gordon was won by the SNP in 2019, but is notionally an Conservative seat under new boundaries
  24. ^ a b Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross was won by the Liberal Democrats in 2019, but is notionally an SNP seat under new boundaries. This seat was considered ultra-marginal but now has a notional SNP majority of over 3,000 votes.
  25. ^ a b North East Fife was won by the Liberal Democrats in 2019, but is notionally an SNP seat under new boundaries. This seat is considered ultra-marginal.
  26. ^ a b c Rutherglen and Hamilton West was won by Labour in the 2023 by-election, but is still notionally an SNP seat under new boundaries.

References

  1. ^ Leach, Anna; Hoog, Niels de. "UK general election: the seats the Tories will lose if the polls are right". the Guardian. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
  2. ^ "List of general election top target seats, by party". The Independent. 16 January 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
  3. ^ "Conservative Targets Seats 2024 - Election Polling". www.electionpolling.co.uk. Archived from the original on 7 April 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
  4. ^ "Labour Targets Seats 2024 - Election Polling". www.electionpolling.co.uk. Archived from the original on 10 April 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
  5. ^ Eaton, George (29 January 2024). "How Labour's path to a majority has eased". New Statesman. Retrieved 13 May 2024.
  6. ^ "Liberal Democrat Targets Seats 2024 - Election Polling". www.electionpolling.co.uk. Archived from the original on 7 April 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
  7. ^ "Liberal Democrats targeting Tory seats in election fight back". BBC News. 27 January 2023. Retrieved 13 May 2024.
  8. ^ "Could Reform UK surge sink Tory election hopes?". BBC News. 16 February 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
  9. ^ Penna, Dominic; Corfe, Ollie (28 February 2024). "Six graphs that show Reform UK could be kingmakers at the election". The Telegraph. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
  10. ^ "Reform UK Targets Seats 2024 - Election Polling". www.electionpolling.co.uk. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
  11. ^ "SNP Targets Seats 2024 - Election Polling". www.electionpolling.co.uk.
  12. ^ "Plaid Cymru Targets Seats 2024 - Election Polling". www.electionpolling.co.uk. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
  13. ^ "Green Targets Seats 2024 - Election Polling". www.electionpolling.co.uk. Archived from the original on 7 April 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
  14. ^ Walker, Peter (5 October 2023). "Greens head to Brighton targeting four seats at next election". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
  15. ^ "UUP Targets Seats 2024 - Election Polling". www.electionpolling.co.uk. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
  16. ^ "Sinn Fein Targets Seats 2024 - Election Polling". www.electionpolling.co.uk. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
  17. ^ "DUP Targets Seats 2024 - Election Polling". www.electionpolling.co.uk. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
  18. ^ "SDLP Targets Seats 2024 - Election Polling". www.electionpolling.co.uk. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
  19. ^ "Alliance NI Targets Seats 2024 - Election Polling". www.electionpolling.co.uk. Retrieved 5 May 2024.

See also

Retrieved from "https://mdwiki.org/wiki/List_of_target_seats_in_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election"