2004 United States Senate election in Washington
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County results Murray: 40โ50% 50โ60% 60โ70% Nethercutt: 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Washington |
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The 2004 United States Senate election in Washington was held on November 2, 2004. Incumbent Democrat U.S. Senator Patty Murray won re-election to a third term, defeating Republican U.S. Representative George Nethercutt. She became only the fourth Washington senator to win 3 consecutive terms, just after fellow Democrats Warren G. Magnuson and Scoop Jackson[citation needed]. Nethercutt was known for having defeated Tom Foley, the sitting Speaker of the House of Representatives, as part of the 1994 Republican wave.
Term limits became an issue in the campaign, as Democrats seized on Nethercutt's broken term-limits pledge that he had made when he had unseated Foley in 1994. Geography was also against Nethercutt, who was severely hampered by his lack of name recognition in the more densely populated western part of the state, home to two-thirds of the state's population. Washington has not elected a Senator from east of the Cascades since Clarence Dill in 1928. Other important issues included national security and the war in Iraq. Nethercutt supported the invasion of Iraq, while Murray opposed it.
Nethercutt was considered a heavy underdog from the start, and his campaign never gained much traction. In November, he lost by 12 points, receiving 43 percent of the vote to Murray's 55 percent. He only carried two counties west of the Cascades.
Major candidates
Democratic
- Patty Murray, incumbent U.S. Senator
Republican
- George Nethercutt, U.S. Representative
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
Sabato's Crystal Ball[1] | Likely D | November 1, 2004 |
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[2] |
Margin of error |
Patty Murray (D) |
George Nethercutt (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA | October 29โ31, 2004 | 622 (LV) | ยฑ 4% | 51% | 45% | 3% |
Strategic Vision (R) | October 29โ31, 2004 | 801 (LV) | ยฑ 3% | 50% | 42% | 8% |
Strategic Vision (R) | October 24โ26, 2004 | 801 (LV) | ยฑ 3% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
Mason-Dixon | October 25โ26, 2004 | 800 (RV) | ยฑ 3.5% | 53% | 39% | 8% |
SurveyUSA | October 23โ25, 2004 | 618 (LV) | ยฑ 4% | 55% | 41% | 4% |
Strategic Vision (R) | October 16โ18, 2004 | 801 (LV) | ยฑ 3% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
SurveyUSA | October 15โ17, 2004 | 634 (LV) | ยฑ 4% | 56% | 38% | 6% |
Elway Research | October 14โ16, 2004 | 405 (RV) | ยฑ 5% | 54% | 37% | 9% |
Strategic Vision (R) | October 4โ6, 2004 | 801 (LV) | ยฑ 3% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
SurveyUSA | October 2โ4, 2004 | 640 (LV) | ยฑ 4% | 57% | 38% | 5% |
Strategic Vision (R) | September 20โ22, 2004 | 801 (LV) | ยฑ 3% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
SurveyUSA | September 19โ21, 2004 | 627 (LV) | ยฑ 4% | 53% | 41% | 6% |
Elway Research | September 17โ19, 2004 | 405 (RV) | ยฑ 5% | 57% | 37% | 6% |
Strategic Vision (R) | September 4โ6, 2004 | 801 (LV) | ยฑ 3% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
Strategic Vision (R) | August 21โ23, 2004 | 801 (LV) | ยฑ 3% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
SurveyUSA | August 15โ17, 2004 | 602 (LV) | ยฑ 4.1% | 53% | 39% | 10% |
Strategic Vision (R) | August 9โ11, 2004 | 801 (LV) | ยฑ 3% | 49% | 40% | 11% |
SurveyUSA | Jul 31โAug 2, 2004 | 585 (LV) | ยฑ 4.2% | 51% | 40% | 9% |
Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates (D) | June 23โ28, 2004 | 800 (RV) | ยฑ 3.8% | 56% | 33% | 11% |
Moore Information (R) | June 23โ24, 2004 | 500 (RV) | ยฑ 4% | 51% | 39% | 10% |
Mason-Dixon (D) | June 9โ11, 2004 | 625 (RV) | ยฑ 4% | 53% | 34% | 13% |
SurveyUSA | June 1โ3, 2004 | 654 (RV) | ยฑ 4% | 49% | 34% | 17% |
Tarrance Group (R) | May 2โ3, 2004 | 500 (LV) | ยฑ 4.5% | 50.6% | 41.1% | 8.3% |
Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates (D) | April 22โ27, 2004 | 800 (LV) | ยฑ 3.8% | 54% | 31% | 15% |
Tarrance Group (R) | May 5โ6, 2003 | 504 (LV) | ยฑ 4.5% | 52% | 37% | 11% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[2] |
Margin of error |
Patty Murray (D) |
George Nethercutt (R) |
Reed Davis (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Elway Research | January 27โ29, 2004 | 405 (V) | ยฑ 5% | 49% | 19% | 5% | 27% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[2] |
Margin of error |
Patty Murray (D) |
Jennifer Dunn (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
for NRSC (R) | January 2003 | 500 (RV) | ยฑ 4.4% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
Results
The election was not close, with Murray winning by 12.24% of the vote. Although Murray failed to win any counties in the eastern part of the state, she pulled down big margins from the western part of the state, which is significantly more populated. Specifically, Murray trounced Nethercutt in King County, home of Seattle, the most populous county in the state. Murray was sworn in for a third term on January 3, 2005.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Patty Murray (Incumbent) | 1,549,708 | 54.98% | ||
Republican | George Nethercutt | 1,204,584 | 42.74% | ||
Libertarian | J. Mills | 34,055 | 1.21% | ||
Green | Mark Wilson | 30,304 | 1.08% | ||
Total votes | 2,818,651 | 100.00% | |||
Democratic hold |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Asotin (Largest city: Clarkston)
- Ferry (Largest city: Republic)
- Kittias (Largest city: Ellensburg)
- Pend Oreille (Largest city: Newport)
- Spokane (Largest city: Spokane)
- Whitman (Largest city: Pullman)
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
See also
Notes
References
- ^ "The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 2004. Retrieved May 2, 2021.
- ^ a b c Key:
A โ all adults
RV โ registered voters
LV โ likely voters
V โ unclear - ^ "Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives".
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- 2004 United States Senate elections
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