Talk:Allan Lichtman

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This article is one of thousands on Wikipedia that have a link to YouTube in it. Based on the External links policy, most of these should probably be removed. I'm putting this message here, on this talk page, to request the regular editors take a look at the link and make sure it doesn't violate policy. In short: 1. 99% of the time YouTube should not be used as a source. 2. We must not link to material that violates someones copyright. If you are not sure if the link on this article should be removed, feel free to ask me on my talk page and I'll review it personally. Thanks. ---J.S (t|c) 04:28, 8 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

RfC

Light bulb iconBAn RfC: Which descriptor, if any, can be added in front of Southern Poverty Law Center when referenced in other articles? has been posted at the Southern Poverty Law Center talk page. Your participation is welcomed. – MrX 16:16, 22 September 2012 (UTC)[reply]

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Can't have it both ways

He was wrong in predicting the President in 2000, as he choose Gore.

However, if his model simply chooses the winner of the popular vote, then he was wrong by choosing Trump in 2016. So, which year was he wrong: 2000 or 2016? — Preceding unsigned comment added by 2602:304:CE5F:2CE0:9C06:1CC:3EF8:1D84 (talk) 05:52, 23 November 2016 (UTC)[reply]

This is the place to discuss well-sourced article content. Instead of asking others to do the research, you will be a more effective contributor if you research the matter, find WP:RS references and propose any edits you feel reflect the sources within Wikipedia's editing policies and guidelines. SPECIFICO talk 15:46, 23 November 2016 (UTC)[reply]
I've since corrected the article to properly reflect this editor's concern. It would appear that Litchman, in his desire to be "right" has indeed contradicted himself. While Litchman excused his previous error of 2000 by pointing out the discrepancy between the popular vote and the electoral vote, he should not be permitted to then reverse this same logic in the 2016 election, and still claim that he was accurate in both elections. He cannot "have his cake and eat it too."
Still, I think that it is fair to give Litchman credit for the 2016 election and to disqualify his prediction on the 2000 election, because Litchman does not appear to be consistently referring to popular vote results, but to instead be predicting electoral outcomes. As requested above, I have now inserted an appropriate cite regarding Litchman's erroneous prediction for the 2000 election. Thanks, Scott P. (talk) 16:03, 3 December 2016 (UTC)[reply]
No, he's been pretty consistent in that his model is only for the the popular vote. His model retrospectively claimed Tilden and Cleveland should have won in 1876 and 1888, respectively, and I recall in his book on the 13 keys, he flat out said that the Electoral College was irrelevant. I've updated with the relevant source. Somebody Who Exists (talk) 01:27, 9 December 2016 (UTC)[reply]

I don't see how his model can be considered valid for the electoral vote. He doesn't consider differences between states in his analysisJsnyder527 (talk) 00:02, 22 August 2020 (UTC).[reply]

He's still teaching and seems very approachable; why don't you write him at his university email address and ask? – Aboudaqn (talk) 19:58, 24 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]
We should settle this point, as there's been a lot of dispute about this recently on the 13 Keys page. Here are several sources regarding this discrepancy:
  1. This source is the one most cited, but I cannot get access.
  2. His 2016 book (preview on Amazon says popular vote on page 2). A citation to his 2016 book here would also be consistent with this inconsistency, there is a quote in it: “predict only the national popular vote and not the vote within individual states.”
  3. Not that a Reddit thread is a source, but it explains this more coherently: here
  4. Another article explaining the discrepancy: here.
His books from the 1990s do say popular vote only, so I am inclined to count 2000 but not count 2016, consistent with the sources. Anyone with access to that document or with insight, it would help Caraturane (talk) 02:05, 24 June 2024 (UTC)[reply]
Someone was able to get a link to the document in question over on Talk:The Keys to the White House, they strongly support the fact he was using the popular vote in 2016. Caraturane (talk) 21:41, 25 June 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Brackets (done)

Read the introduction! Will you notice the errors with the brackets? --212.186.7.98 (talk) 07:10, 28 April 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Thank you for correcting it. --212.186.7.98 (talk) 15:23, 28 April 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Predictions

In 2000 and 2016, did Lichtman really predict the popular vote winners or the total (electoral) winners of the elections? It isn't good sourced. --212.186.7.98 (talk) 10:32, 13 May 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Inaccurate Intro

The intro makes this false statement: It says he "accurately predicted the winner of every U.S. presidential election since 1984, with the exception of 2000 … and 2016, where he predicted Donald Trump would win, despite Trump's popular vote loss." Of course, Trump did win, despite his popular vote loss. After looking up the prediction, I'm changing it to this: "… and 2016, where he predicted Donald Trump would win the popular vote." (At least I think that's what Lichtman predicted. When he makes his prediction, he's not clear if he's predicting a popular vote victory or an electoral victory. They're usually the same thing, but his two failures happened when the winner lost the popular vote. MiguelMunoz (talk) 00:22, 9 July 2024 (UTC)[reply]

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