Opinion polling for the 2024 French legislative election
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This page lists public opinion polls conducted for the snap 2024 French legislative election, which will be held in two rounds on 30 June and 7 July 2024. Unless otherwise noted, all polls listed below are compliant with the regulations of the national polling commission and utilize the quota method. Sample sizes listed are for registered voters, and polls are listed in reverse chronological then alphabetical order by name of institute.
Polling
Graphical summary
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First round
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | EXG | NFP | DVG | ECO | ENS | DVC | LR (CNI)[a] |
DVD | DSV | RN and allies | REC | REG | Others | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LFI | PCF | LE | PS | Pro-Ciotti LR/UXD[b] |
RN | ||||||||||||||
| Ifop | 21–25 Jun 2024 | 2,335 | 1% | 28.5% | 0.5% | – | 21% | 1% | 6.5% | – | 36% | 1.5% | – | 4% | |||||
| Cluster17 | 22–24 Jun 2024 | 2,470 | 1.5% | 30% | 1.5% | – | 19.5% | 1% | 7.5% | 1.5% | – | 4% | 30.5% | 1.5% | – | 1.5% | |||
| Harris Interactive | 21–24 Jun 2024 | 2,004 | 1% | 27% | 1% | – | 20% | 1% | 7% | 2% | 0.5% | 4% | 33% | 2% | – | 1.5% | |||
| Ifop | 20–24 Jun 2024 | 1,843 | 1% | 29.5% | 1% | – | 20.5% | 1% | 7% | – | 36% | 1% | – | 3% | |||||
| Ifop | 19–22 Jun 2024 | 1,853 | 1.5% | 29% | 1% | – | 21% | 1% | 7% | – | 35.5% | 1% | – | 3% | |||||
| Elabe | 19–21 Jun 2024 | 1,870 | 1% | 27% | 2% | – | 20% | 0.5% | 10% | 0.5%[c] | 36% | 1.5% | – | 1.5% | |||||
| Ifop | 18–21 Jun 2024 | 2,317 | 1% | 29% | 1% | – | 21.5% | 1% | 6.5% | – | 35% | 1.5% | – | 3.5% | |||||
| Harris Interactive | 19–20 Jun 2024 | 2,004 | 1% | 26% | 1% | – | 21% | 1% | 6% | 2% | 0.5% | 2% | 33% | 3% | – | 3.5% | |||
| Ipsos | 19–20 Jun 2024 | 2,000 | 1.5% | 29.5% | 1% | – | 19.5% | 1% | 7% | 1.5% | 4% | 31.5% | 2% | – | 1.5% | ||||
| Odoxa | 19–20 Jun 2024 | 1,861 | 2% | 28% | 3% | 1.5% | 19% | – | 7% | 1% | – | 33% | 3.5% | – | 2% | ||||
| OpinionWay | 19–20 Jun 2024 | 1,009 | 1% | 28% | 1% | <1% | 22% | – | 6% | 3% | – | 35% | 1% | – | 3% | ||||
| Ifop | 18–20 Jun 2024 | 1,861 | 1% | 29% | 1% | – | 22% | 1% | 6% | – | 34% | 2% | – | 4% | |||||
| OpinionWay | 18–20 Jun 2024 | 1,057 | <1% | 27% | 2% | 1% | 20% | – | 7% | 2% | – | 35% | 2% | – | 4% | ||||
| Cluster17 | 17–19 Jun 2024 | 2,654 | 1% | 30% | 3% | – | 19% | – | 7% | 2.5% | – | 32% | 2.5% | – | 3% | ||||
| Ifop | 14–17 Jun 2024 | 1,131 | 1.5% | 28% | 3% | – | 18% | – | 5% | 2% | 0.5% | 4% | 33% | 3% | – | 2% | |||
| Ifop | 13–14 Jun 2024 | 1,114 | 1% | 26% | 3.5% | – | 19% | – | 7% | 1.5% | 1% | – | 35% | 3% | – | 3% | |||
| OpinionWay | 12–13 Jun 2024 | 1,011 | 1% | 25% | 2% | 2% | 20% | – | 7% | 2% | – | – | 33% | 3% | – | 5% | |||
| Cluster17 | 11–13 Jun 2024 | 2,764 | 1% | 28.5% | 3% | 1.5% | 18% | 1% | 7% | 2.5% | 1.5% | – | 29.5% | 3.5% | 1% | 2% | |||
| Elabe | 11–12 Jun 2024 | 1,422 | 1% | 28% | 5% | – | 18% | – | 6.5% | 2% | – | – | 31% | 4% | – | 4.5% | |||
| OpinionWay | 11–12 Jun 2024 | 1,019 | 1% | 25% | 3% | 1% | 19% | – | 9% | 1% | – | – | 32% | 4% | – | 5% | |||
| Ifop | 10–11 Jun 2024 | 1,089 | 1% | 25% | 5% | – | 18% | – | 9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | – | 35% | 4% | – | 1% | |||
| 1% | 11% | 19% | 3% | – | 17% | – | 8% | 2% | <0.5% | – | 34% | 4% | – | 1% | |||||
| 1% | 11% | 2% | 6% | 13% | 2% | – | 16% | – | 8% | 1% | 0.5% | – | 35% | 3.5% | – | 1% | |||
| OpinionWay | 10 Jun 2024 | 1,095 | 1% | 23% | 4% | 2% | 18% | – | 8% | 2% | – | – | 33% | 5% | – | 4% | |||
| Harris Interactive | 9–10 Jun 2024 | 2,340 | 3% | 22% | 9% | – | 19% | – | 9% | – | – | 34% | 4% | – | – | ||||
| Ifop | 12–13 Dec 2023 | 1,100 | 1.5% | 24% | 6% | – | 19% | – | 11% | 3% | 1% | – | 28% | 5% | – | 1.5% | |||
| 1% | 10% | 4% | 9% | 8% | 2% | – | 18% | – | 10% | 3% | 1% | – | 27% | 6% | – | 1% | |||
| Elabe | 3–5 Apr 2023 | 1,699 | 1% | 25.5% | 3% | – | 21.5% | – | 11.5% | 1% | 1.5% | – | 24.5% | 4.5% | – | 6% | |||
| Ifop | 20–21 Mar 2023 | 1,094 | 1% | 26% | 5% | – | 22% | – | 10% | 2% | 1% | – | 26% | 5% | – | 2% | |||
| 1% | 11% | 3% | 9% | 7% | 3% | – | 21% | – | 10% | 1% | 1% | – | 26% | 5% | – | 2% | |||
| Harris Interactive | 3–7 Mar 2023 | 2,108 | 1% | 24% | 6% | – | 24% | 1% | 10% | 3% | 1% | – | 22% | 4% | – | 4% | |||
| Cluster17 | 4–6 Nov 2022 | 2,096 | 1.5% | 24.5% | 3% | 1%[d] | 25% | 0.5% | 10.5% | 2% | 2% | – | 20% | 5% | 1% | 4% | |||
| Ifop | 2–4 Nov 2022 | 1,396 | 1.5% | 25% | 4% | – | 27% | – | 11% | 2% | 0.5% | – | 21% | 5.5% | – | 2.5% | |||
| 1.5% | 11% | 3% | 7% | 8% | 2% | – | 26% | – | 11% | 3% | 0% | – | 21% | 5% | – | 1.5% | |||
| Ministry of the Interior (Le Monde) |
12 Jun 2022 | — | 1.17% (1.19%) |
25.66% (26.16%) |
3.70% (3.30%) |
2.67% (–) |
25.75% (25.80%) |
1.25% (1.30%) |
11.29% (11.30%) |
2.33% (1.92%) |
1.13% (1.21%) |
– | 18.68% (18.68%) |
4.24% (4.25%) |
1.28% (1.09%) |
0.85% (3.80%) | |||
Seat projections
Even though polls since the publication of the official list of candidates by the Ministry of the Interior ask about the specific candidates within each constituency, seat estimates should be treated with a significant level of precaution due to their numerous sources of uncertainty which include but are not limited to:
- the large historical error associated with these seat projections outside of the margins of uncertainty reported by pollsters;
- the fact that the legislative election is based on two rounds of voting with 577 varying configurations of candidates in different constituencies, rather than a national party list vote;
- the number of constituencies with second rounds featuring more than two candidates (due to the threshold of 12.5% of registered voters to appear in the second round);
- the need to make inferences about first-to-second round vote transfers between candidates based on historical voting patterns;
- the unpredictability of eliminated candidates' voting instructions in the aftermath of the first round and candidate withdrawals in constituencies with three or more candidates advancing to the second round; and
- the fact that these projections are agnostic to local factors such as the strength of specific incumbent deputies because they are not made on a constituency-by-constituency basis, and are instead based on simulations using the aforementioned inferences on the basis of national-level polling with a representative sample in terms of gender, age, region, urbanicity, and socio-economic status (among other variables) projected onto each constituency.
Due to these uncertainties, certain polling institutes opt not to release seat projections alongside topline voting intention figures prior to the first round, and only publish such projections after the results of that initial voting is known.[e]
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | NFP | DVG | ENS | DVC | LR (CNI)[a] |
DVD | DSV | RN and allies | REC | Others | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LFI | PCF | LE | PS | Pro-Ciotti LR/UXD[b] |
RN | |||||||||||
| Ifop | 21–25 Jun 2024 | 2,335 | 180–210 | 5–9 | 75–110 | – | 25–50 | – | 220–260[f] | – | 4–8 | |||||
| Cluster17 | 22–24 Jun 2024 | 2,470 | 180–230 | – | 65–100 | – | 25–40 | – | – | 210–250 | – | 20–30 | ||||
| Harris Interactive | 21–24 Jun 2024 | 2,044 | 150–180 | – | 85–130 | – | 30–50 | – | 0–2 | 15–30 | 215–245 | – | 10–20 | |||
| Ifop | 20–24 Jun 2024 | 1,843 | 185–215 | 6–10 | 70–100 | – | 30–50 | – | 220–260 | – | 3–7 | |||||
| Ifop | 19–22 Jun 2024 | 1,853 | 180–210 | 7–11 | 75–105 | – | 40–60 | – | 210–250[f] | – | 3–8 | |||||
| Elabe | 19–21 Jun 2024 | 1,870 | 150–170 | 90–110 | – | 35–45 | – | 250–280 | – | 10–12 | ||||||
| Ifop | 18–21 Jun 2024 | 2,317 | 180–210 | 8–12 | 80–110 | – | 40–60 | – | 200–240[f] | – | 5–10 | |||||
| Harris Interactive | 19–20 Jun 2024 | 2,004 | 135–165 | – | 95–130 | – | 30–50 | – | 0–2 | 15–30 | 220–250 | – | 10–20 | |||
| Odoxa | 19–20 Jun 2024 | 1,861 | 160–210 | 70–120 | – | 10–50 | – | 250–300 | – | – | ||||||
| Cluster17 | 17–19 Jun 2024 | 2,654 | 190–240 | – | 70–100 | – | 20–30 | – | – | 200–250 | – | 20–30 | ||||
| Cluster17 | 11–13 Jun 2024 | 2,764 | 190–235 | 10–14 | 70–100 | – | 23–35 | – | – | – | 195–245 | – | 10–16 | |||
| Elabe | 11–12 Jun 2024 | 1,422 | 150–190 | 90–130 | 30–40 | – | – | 220–270 | – | 10–20 | ||||||
| Harris-Interactive | 9–10 Jun 2024 | 2,340 | 115–145 | – | 125–155 | 40–55 | 0–2 | – | 235–265 | – | 5–20 | |||||
| Ipsos (for LR) | 8–13 Dec 2023 | 4,000 | 55–79 | 20–22 | 117–165 | 3 | 44–60 | 7–8 | – | – | 243–305 | – | 10–11 | |||
| Elabe | 3–5 Apr 2023 | 1,699 | 150–180 | 15–20 | 130–155 | 60–75 | 1–2 | – | 150–175 | – | 12–15 | |||||
| Harris-Interactive | 3–7 Mar 2023 | 2,108 | 158–168 | 234–244 | 69–79 | 91–100 | – | 8–14 | ||||||||
| Ministry of the Interior (Le Monde) |
19 Jun 2022 | — | 131 (142) |
22 (13) |
245 (246) |
4 (5) |
74 (73) |
1 (1) |
– | 89 (89) |
0 (1) |
11 (7) | ||||
By second round configuration
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | NFP | ENS | RN | Don't know | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LFI | PCF | LE | PS | ||||||
| OpinionWay | 17–18 Jun 2024 | 1,044 | 33% | – | 41% | 26% | |||
| – | 40% | 37% | 23% | ||||||
By constituency
Because the configuration of the second round, if any, is contingent on the level of turnout in the first round, only the top-placed candidate is highlighted in first-round polls below.
Nord's 10th
First round
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Christophe Charlon LO |
Leslie Mortreux NFP–REV |
Gérald Darmanin ENS–RE |
Jérôme Garcia LR |
Bastien Verbrugghe RN |
Gustave Viguie-Desplaces REC |
Marcelin Brazon Résistons! |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ifop | 18–20 Jun 2024 | 602 | 1.5% | 24% | 42% | 2.5% | 28% | 1% | 1% |
Second round
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Leslie Mortreux NFP–REV |
Gérald Darmanin ENS–RE |
Bastien Verbrugghe RN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ifop | 18–20 Jun 2024 | 602 | 27% | 44% | 29% |
| – | 65% | 35% |
See also
- Opinion polling for the 2022 French legislative election
- Opinion polling for the 2024 EP election in France
- Opinion polling on the Emmanuel Macron presidency
- Opinion polling for the 2027 French presidential election
Notes and references
- ^ a b Candidates presented by the national investiture commission of The Republicans (French: commission nationale d'investiture des Républicains)
- ^ a b UXD, union of the far right (French: union de l'extrême droite) is the electoral nuance assigned by the Ministry of the Interior to the 62 LR members invested as candidates supported by Éric Ciotti and the RN:
- "Publication des candidatures et des résultats aux élections". Ministère de l'Intérieur.
- Guez, Ariel (17 June 2024). "Législatives: au moins 62 candidats soutenus par Éric Ciotti et le RN, près de 400 par Les Républicains". BFMTV. Retrieved 20 June 2024.
- Barbarit, Simon (17 June 2024). "Alliance Ciotti Bardella : que sait-on des candidats investis pour les législatives ?". Public Sénat. Retrieved 20 June 2024.
- "Législatives : LR investit tous ses députés sortants, sauf Éric Ciotti et une de ses proches". Le Parisien. Agence France-Presse. 12 June 2024. Retrieved 20 June 2024.
- ^ Including miscellaneous far-right candidates
- ^ Animalist Party, which is not officially presenting candidates in the 2024 legislative elections:
- Avot, Céline (17 June 2024). "Législatives 2024. Pas de candidat pour le Parti animaliste dans la 2e circonscription de la Manche". Ouest-France. Retrieved 21 June 2024.
- ^ Rougerie, Paméla (22 June 2024). "Législatives : tendances, projections de sièges… Comment les instituts conçoivent leurs sondages". Le Parisien. Retrieved 25 June 2024.
- ^ a b c Including 10–20 seats for the union of the far right of pro-Éric Ciotti candidates of The Republicans supported by the National Rally