Template:Notable flu pandemics

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Major modern influenza pandemics[1][2]
Name Date World pop. Subtype Reproduction number Infected (est.) Deaths worldwide Case fatality rate Pandemic severity
1889–90 flu pandemic[3] 1889–90 1.53 billion Likely H3N8 or H2N2 2.10 (IQR, 1.9–2.4)[3] 20–60%[3] (300–900 million) 1 million[4] 0.10–0.28%[3] 2
1918 flu[5] 1918–20 1.80 billion H1N1 1.80 (IQR, 1.47–2.27)[6] 33% (500 million)[7] or >56% (>1 billion)[8] 17[9]–100[10][11] million 2–3%,[8] or ~4%, or ~10%[12] 5
Asian flu[13] 1957–58 2.90 billion H2N2 1.65 (IQR, 1.53–1.70)[6] >17% (>500 million)[8] 1–4 million[8] <0.2%[8] 2
Hong Kong flu[14] 1968–69 3.53 billion H3N2 1.80 (IQR, 1.56–1.85)[6] >14% (>500 million)[8] 1–4 million[8] <0.1%[8][15] 2
2009 flu pandemic[16][17] 2009–10 6.85 billion H1N1/09 1.46 (IQR, 1.30–1.70)[6] 11–21% (0.7–1.4 billion)[18] 151,700–575,400[19] 0.01%[20][21] 1
Typical seasonal flu[t 1] Every year 7.75 billion A/H3N2, A/H1N1, B, ... 1.28 (IQR, 1.19–1.37)[6] 5–15% (340 million – 1 billion)[22]
3–11% or 5–20%[23][24] (240 million – 1.6 billion)
290,000–650,000/year[25] <0.1%[26] 1
Notes
  1. Not necessarily pandemic, but included for comparison purposes.


Notes

  • 1889–90 flu, People infected (est.) number: please review source. There are two diverging statements: 20–60% vs 60% (45–70%). Which one is more relevant?
  • For the 1918 flu, people infected numbers (500 million), mortality rate (2~3%) contradict the deaths worldwide "20–100 million" statements. Review needed. Lead: Johnson NPAS, Mueller (2002). "Updating the Accounts: Global Mortality of the 1918–1920 Spanish Influenza Pandemic".
  • Kilbourne ED (January 2006). "Influenza pandemics of the 20th century". Emerging Infectious Diseases. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 12 (1): 9–14. doi:10.3201/eid1201.051254. PMC 3291411. PMID 16494710. Considers 1918, 1957, 1968 as pandemics; 1947 (H1N1), 1976 (H1N1), 1977 (H1N1) as pseudopandemics.

References

  1. Hilleman MR (August 2002). "Realities and enigmas of human viral influenza: pathogenesis, epidemiology and control". Vaccine. 20 (25–26): 3068–87. doi:10.1016/S0264-410X(02)00254-2. PMID 12163258.
  2. Potter CW (October 2001). "A history of influenza". Journal of Applied Microbiology. 91 (4): 572–9. doi:10.1046/j.1365-2672.2001.01492.x. PMID 11576290.
  3. 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 Valleron AJ, Cori A, Valtat S, Meurisse S, Carrat F, Boëlle PY (May 2010). "Transmissibility and geographic spread of the 1889 influenza pandemic". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 107 (19): 8778–81. Bibcode:2010PNAS..107.8778V. doi:10.1073/pnas.1000886107. PMC 2889325. PMID 20421481.
  4. "The Russian Flu of 1889: The Deadly Pandemic Few Americans Took Seriously". HISTORY. 3 October 2023. Retrieved 28 February 2024.
  5. Mills CE, Robins JM, Lipsitch M (December 2004). "Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza". Nature. 432 (7019): 904–6. Bibcode:2004Natur.432..904M. doi:10.1038/nature03063. PMC 7095078. PMID 15602562.
  6. 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 Biggerstaff M, Cauchemez S, Reed C, Gambhir M, Finelli L (September 2014). "Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature". BMC Infectious Diseases. 14 (1): 480. doi:10.1186/1471-2334-14-480. PMC 4169819. PMID 25186370.
  7. Taubenberger JK, Morens DM (January 2006). "1918 Influenza: the mother of all pandemics". Emerging Infectious Diseases. 12 (1): 15–22. doi:10.3201/eid1201.050979. PMC 3291398. PMID 16494711.
  8. 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 "Report of the Review Committee on the Functioning of the International Health Regulations (2005) in relation to Pandemic (H1N1) 2009" (PDF). 2011-05-05. p. 37. Archived (PDF) from the original on 14 May 2015. Retrieved 1 March 2015.
  9. Spreeuwenberg P, Kroneman M, Paget J (December 2018). "Reassessing the Global Mortality Burden of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic". American Journal of Epidemiology. 187 (12): 2561–2567. doi:10.1093/aje/kwy191. PMID 30202996.
  10. Morens DM, Fauci AS (April 2007). "The 1918 influenza pandemic: insights for the 21st century". The Journal of Infectious Diseases. 195 (7): 1018–28. doi:10.1086/511989. PMID 17330793.
  11. Johnson NP, Mueller J (2002). "Updating the accounts: global mortality of the 1918-1920 "Spanish" influenza pandemic". Bulletin of the History of Medicine. 76 (1): 105–15. doi:10.1353/bhm.2002.0022. PMID 11875246.
  12. "Why the coronavirus outbreak isn't likely to be a repeat of the 1918 Spanish flu". Los Angeles Times. 6 March 2020. Retrieved 17 February 2024.
  13. Jackson, Claire (1 August 2009). "History lessons: the Asian Flu pandemic". The British Journal of General Practice. 59 (565): 622–623. doi:10.3399/bjgp09X453882. ISSN 0960-1643. Retrieved 25 February 2024.
  14. Jester, Barbara J.; Uyeki, Timothy M.; Jernigan, Daniel B. (2020). "Fifty Years of Influenza A(H3N2) Following the Pandemic of 1968". American Journal of Public Health. 110 (5): 669–676. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2019.305557. ISSN 0090-0036.
  15. Schwarzmann, Stephen W. (1971-06-01). "Bacterial Pneumonia During the Hong Kong Influenza Epidemic of 1968-1969". Archives of Internal Medicine. 127 (6): 1037. doi:10.1001/archinte.1971.00310180053006. ISSN 0003-9926.
  16. Donaldson LJ, Rutter PD, Ellis BM, Greaves FE, Mytton OT, Pebody RG, Yardley IE (December 2009). "Mortality from pandemic A/H1N1 2009 influenza in England: public health surveillance study". BMJ. 339: b5213. doi:10.1136/bmj.b5213. PMC 2791802. PMID 20007665.
  17. "First Global Estimates of 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Mortality Released by CDC-Led Collaboration". Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). 25 June 2012. Retrieved 7 July 2012.
  18. Kelly H, Peck HA, Laurie KL, Wu P, Nishiura H, Cowling BJ (2011-08-05). "The age-specific cumulative incidence of infection with pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 was similar in various countries prior to vaccination". PLOS One. 6 (8): e21828. Bibcode:2011PLoSO...621828K. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0021828. PMC 3151238. PMID 21850217.
  19. Dawood FS, Iuliano AD, Reed C, Meltzer MI, Shay DK, Cheng PY, et al. (September 2012). "Estimated global mortality associated with the first 12 months of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 virus circulation: a modelling study". The Lancet. Infectious Diseases. 12 (9): 687–95. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(12)70121-4. PMID 22738893.
  20. Riley, Steven; Kwok, Kin O.; Wu, Kendra M.; Ning, Danny Y.; Cowling, Benjamin J.; Wu, Joseph T.; Ho, Lai-Ming; Tsang, Thomas; Lo, Su-Vui; Chu, Daniel K. W.; Ma, Edward S. K. (2011-06-21). "Epidemiological Characteristics of 2009 (H1N1) Pandemic Influenza Based on Paired Sera from a Longitudinal Community Cohort Study". PLOS Medicine. 8 (6): e1000442. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000442. ISSN 1549-1676. PMC 3119689. PMID 21713000.
  21. Wong, Jessica Y.; Kelly, Heath; Ip, Dennis K. M.; Wu, Joseph T.; Leung, Gabriel M.; Cowling, Benjamin J. (November 2013). "Case fatality risk of influenza A(H1N1pdm09): a systematic review". Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.). 24 (6). doi:10.1097/EDE.0b013e3182a67448. ISSN 1044-3983. PMC 3809029. PMID 24045719.
  22. "WHO Europe – Influenza". World Health Organization (WHO). June 2009. Archived from the original on 17 June 2009. Retrieved 12 June 2009.
  23. "Key Facts About Influenza (Flu)". Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2 May 2023. Retrieved 17 February 2024.
  24. Tokars JI, Olsen SJ, Reed C (May 2018). "Seasonal Incidence of Symptomatic Influenza in the United States". Clinical Infectious Diseases. 66 (10): 1511–1518. doi:10.1093/cid/cix1060. PMC 5934309. PMID 29206909.
  25. "Influenza: Fact sheet". World Health Organization (WHO). 6 November 2018. Archived from the original on 17 December 2019. Retrieved 25 January 2020.
  26. "H1N1 fatality rates comparable to seasonal flu". The Malaysian Insider. Washington, D.C., USA. Reuters. 17 September 2009. Archived from the original on 20 October 2009. Retrieved 26 September 2009.